【The Real Dilemma Facing Ethereum: From Glory to Mediocrity】

Recently, there has been increasing discussion about ETH's prospects. Some are worried about whether it will really go to zero, and this question deserves a thorough analysis.

Honestly, the probability of Ethereum completely collapsing now seems very low. But what’s truly frightening is not zeroing out, but the "deification downfall" it is experiencing. Ethereum in 2026 is indeed at a crossroads.

**The First Issue: Massive Loss of Value Capture**

Ethereum's role is somewhat like a landlord in traditional society—relying on rent to sustain itself. The problem is that those protocols running on Layer 2 (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism) are becoming more efficient, directly leading to a shrinkage in transaction fees paid to the mainnet. User transaction volume is skyrocketing, but the main source of revenue is being eaten up by L2s, putting the mainnet under revenue pressure. If this contradiction cannot be resolved, "digital oil" will truly turn into "digital waste oil."

**The Second Pressure: Being Caught in the Middle**

The current market landscape is not very friendly to ETH. Looking upward, Bitcoin is attracting Wall Street’s attention, with various BTC spot ETFs performing remarkably; looking downward, the Solana ecosystem’s activity is rapidly increasing, with developers and retail investors shifting. Ethereum is caught in the middle: it cannot match BTC in store-of-value, and its explosive potential is being suppressed by SOL. The once "second brother" now seems like someone in midlife crisis—less senior and established than the leader, but lacking the growth vitality of the newcomers.

**The Third Reality: Mediocrity Is More Deadly Than Zero**

ETH will not drop to zero, this is almost certain. Its large staking scale and institutional investors’ holdings are there. But the real risk lies in mediocrity—if its yield cannot outperform Bitcoin, and it is even surpassed by other projects in turn, its value in the investment portfolio will essentially become zero.

**Three Recommendations for 2026**

First, stop blindly believing that "ETH will always rise." Under the current landscape, Ethereum is more like a stable but inflexible asset; high-yield days are unlikely to return.

Second, closely monitor ecosystem data. If subsequent upgrades and optimizations cannot reverse the current inflation trend, ETH’s attractiveness will melt away like ice.

Finally, rethink your allocation strategy. Put safe money into Bitcoin, invest riskier funds into ecosystem breakout points, and Ethereum might be the kind of stable holding suitable for "retirement."