Ethereum is currently experiencing an interesting consolidation phase on the 1-hour chart. The BOLL bands are tightening significantly (middle band 3234, upper band 3379), with the price now stuck around 3289. The MA30 and EMA30 are densely intertwined, and the bulls and bears are temporarily in a stalemate.

Paying close attention to the MACD details is crucial—although the green bars haven't turned red yet, the DIF and DEA are about to converge. Once the hourly chart stabilizes above 3300, a golden cross will appear, confirming that short-term momentum for a rebound is building.

The key support level is at 3260 (which is the resonance point of the BOLL lower band and previous lows). Will a volume confirmation occur if it breaks below? The breakout level to watch is 3350 (MA30 resistance + BOLL upper band). If it stabilizes there, the psychological threshold of 3400 could be within reach.

On-chain data is quite interesting. Large holder addresses are gradually increasing their holdings, but the ETH balance on exchanges hasn't shown significant growth, indicating limited selling pressure and that chips are consolidating. The funding rate for perpetual contracts remains neutral, with no extreme negative rates, suggesting market sentiment is cautious, which in turn leaves room for sudden moves.

The locked-up ETH in the Layer 2 ecosystem has quietly surpassed historical highs recently, supporting the underlying value through ecosystem activity. This week, the Federal Reserve's statements and the progress of the US crypto tax reform draft are worth watching. If policy signals turn more hawkish, ETH/BTC could see a rebound.

From my perspective, consolidation is essentially accumulation. The 1-hour chart has already formed a downward channel, and the MACD bottom divergence pattern is taking shape. As long as volume breaks through the 3260-3350 range, I will consider building positions on pullbacks. The on-chain accumulation signals from large addresses are very clear, and the mid-term upgrade narrative remains unchanged.

The key is to closely monitor the breakout above 3350. Once stabilized, the short-term target is 3400-3450. However, if it unexpectedly falls below 3260, I will wait until below 3200 to reassess support levels.