ETH stuck in the liquidation trap: $1.2 billion "minefield" on both sides

According to the latest news, ETH is currently in a delicate position. Data from Coinglass shows that if ETH breaks through $3,450, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.237 billion; conversely, if it falls below $3,123, the cumulative long liquidation strength will reach $989 million. ETH’s current price is $3,289.18, exactly between these two key levels, with $161 above and $166 below. This position appears balanced but conceals hidden risks.

Asymmetry of Liquidation Strength

Greater pressure above

If ETH breaks through $3,450, the short liquidation strength will reach $1.237 billion, meaning that stop-loss orders for shorts will be triggered en masse. While this figure seems large, it also reflects the market’s defensive stance against upward movement. According to relevant information, about 70% of Binance perpetual contracts are long positions, with high leverage and crowded longs. Once a breakout occurs, short sellers will be forced to close their positions, creating further upward momentum.

Relative weakness of support below

If the price drops below $3,123, the long liquidation strength will be $989 million, about 80% of the above. This asymmetry indicates that the market’s defense against downward movement is relatively weak, and stop-loss orders for longs may not effectively prevent a decline.

Comparison of liquidation strength

Rising Leverage Risks in the Market

Based on relevant analysis, several phenomena in the current market warrant attention:

• Leverage ratio continues to rise, with concentrated long positions
• About 70% of Binance perpetual contracts are long, indicating excessive bullish sentiment
• Large staking activities have reduced liquidity supply, with 2.16 million ETH waiting to be staked
• Whales are continuously building long positions, but some OG whales are gradually selling ETH

These signals together form a “bull trap” scenario. The combination of tightening liquidity and high-leverage longs suggests that if spot demand cannot keep up, a rapid correction may occur.

Market Signals from Whale Behavior

Interestingly, whale actions are sending contradictory signals:

• An ETH OG whale has deposited 13,083 ETH (worth $43.35 million) into Gemini over the past 2 days, continuously selling
• Meanwhile, a whale who previously shorted 255 BTC has closed all positions, establishing a $351 million long with 20x leverage
• Whale 0xBADBB’s $300 million long position has been recovered

This indicates internal market disagreement about the outlook. The gradual selling by OG whales may be profit-taking at high levels, while other whales’ aggressive positioning hints at confidence in further upside. However, the more participants with high leverage, the more fragile the market becomes.

Key Points to Watch

In the coming days, focus on:

• Whether ETH can effectively break through $3,450. If successful, the $1.237 billion short liquidation will push prices higher; if not, it may test $3,123 downward
• Whether liquidity is truly tight. If staked ETH cannot effectively flow back into the market, upward breakthroughs will be easier; otherwise, progress may stall
• The subsequent actions of whales. Will OG whales’ continued selling turn into larger profit-taking?
• Whether leverage continues to rise. If high-leverage participants keep increasing, risks will further accumulate

Summary

ETH is currently in a high-risk, high-reward zone. The $1.237 billion upside liquidation strength and $989 million downside strength form a “dual trap.” Technically, breaking through $3,450 faces greater resistance, but once surpassed, upward momentum could be strong; breaking below $3,123 carries smaller risk but could lead to faster declines.

The biggest current risk lies in high leverage and crowded longs, meaning the market lacks buffers. Whether moving up or down, triggering liquidations could trigger chain reactions. Traders should operate cautiously within this range, closely monitoring liquidity and whale movements.