Is the 21% rebound in Bitcoin a fleeting moment? On-chain data shows that demand remains weak.

【Blockchain Rhythm】Recently, there is an interesting perspective worth discussing. A professional on-chain data analysis institution released a report that provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s recent performance.

Let’s look at the numbers first. Bitcoin has risen approximately 21% since November 21. At first glance, it looks pretty good, right? But here’s the problem—this seems more like a rebound rather than a true recovery. Why? Because the underlying market demand is still quite weak.

There is a key technical indicator called the 365-day moving average. This line is significant for judging bull and bear markets. Bitcoin previously dropped about 19%, even breaking below this line. Once it breaks below, it essentially confirms the arrival of a bear market. Now, although it has rebounded 21%, the price is currently around $101,000 and still hasn’t successfully broken above this moving average.

What’s most interesting is that the current situation is a complete replay of 2022. Back then, Bitcoin also broke below the 365-day moving average and then rebounded strongly, but ultimately was blocked near this line and then fell sharply again. History is repeating itself.

A detail worth noting is that many market participants at that time believed the bear market was over, even claiming that the four-year cycle had failed and a super cycle was coming. This mindset is very similar to the current market sentiment. However, from the fundamentals and various technical indicators, the characteristics of a bear market still clearly exist.

Therefore, the apparent rise may just be a temporary market reaction; weak demand is the fundamental issue. This perspective gives us a hint: a rise does not mean the market trend has truly turned; we need to see whether the fundamentals and technicals have genuinely improved.