ETH Technical Analysis

Currently, ETH is priced at 3289, and the technical structure clearly indicates that the rebound from the low of 3252 has been established. The price has successfully broken above the short-term moving average system, and the bullish and bearish forces have shifted significantly. The market is at a critical testing phase to see whether the rebound trend can continue.

Multi-Cycle Technical Structure Deep Dive

Cycle One (Shorter Cycle): Rebound Trend Established

· Price has re-claimed all short-term moving averages (MA5-MA30: 3284-3296), forming a short-term bullish alignment
· MACD signals are positive: DIF (4.53) and DEA (5.92) have a golden cross above the zero line, MACD histogram is negative but converging rapidly
· RSI (46.76) has rebounded strongly from oversold territory and is approaching the midline of 50
· Buying volume share has risen to 56.93%, market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism
· Key levels: 3291 (MA20) as the short-term strength/weakness boundary, 3314 (MA60) as the primary target above

Cycle Two (Longer Cycle): Mid-term Trend Repair in Progress

· Price is testing key mid-term moving averages: MA30 (3254) has been successfully reclaimed, MA60 (3187) and MA120 (3126) provide strong support below
· MACD shows positive changes: DIF (24.28) remains high, MACD histogram (-10.64) is negative but converging clearly
· RSI (53.76) has re-entered above 50, indicating a re-strengthening of the mid-term trend
· Price has rebounded from the low of 3252, forming a clear upward channel, currently near the channel’s midline
· Key levels: 3314 (MA20) as the mid-term resistance, 3254 (MA30) as the core support

Multi-Dimensional Validation of Key Levels

Upper Resistance Zone: 3314-3336 Triple Resistance

1. Technical Resistance: Mid-term moving average pressure (MA20: 3314, MA60: 3314) and previous platform resistance
2. Structural Resistance: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 3403-3252 decline (around 3318)
3. Psychological Resistance: Round numbers 3330-3340 and previous high-volume trading zones

Lower Support Zone: 3254-3284 Double Defense Line

1. Dynamic Support: MA30 (3254) and dense short-term moving average cluster (3284-3291)
2. Structural Support: The double bottom neckline at 3252; a break below would damage the rebound structure
3. Psychological Support: Round number 3280 and rebound initiation platform

Two Evolution Paths of Bull-Bear Battle

Path One (Probability 60%): Consolidation followed by Upward Breakout
Price continues to consolidate in the 3284-3314 range for 1-2 days, digesting short-term profit-taking and previous trapped positions. Then, with increased volume, it breaks through the 3314 resistance, testing the 3336-3350 zone, possibly challenging the 3400 high. This scenario requires volume to gradually and steadily increase.

Path Two (Probability 40%): Rebound Meets Resistance and Falls Back for a Second Bottom
Price encounters resistance around 3310-3318 and falls back, testing support at 3284-3254 again. If support holds above 3254 and higher lows are formed, a head-and-shoulders bottom or triangle consolidation pattern may develop, accumulating energy for a subsequent breakout. This path involves larger fluctuations but a more solid structure.

Refined Trading Strategies

Current Range Trading Strategy (Applicable in 3284-3314 Zone)

· Bullish Opportunity: When price retraces to 3285-3295 and shows 15-minute stabilization signals, add to long positions, stop-loss at 3270, target 3310→3320
· Bearish Opportunity: When price advances to 3310-3318 and shows signs of slowing momentum, try light short positions (hedging), stop-loss at 3330, target 3290→3280
· Positioning: Maintain 3-5% long positions for bulls, no more than 1% for hedging shorts

Breakout Follow-up Strategies

· Upward Breakout: When volume breaks above 3318 and sustains above for 2 hours, add to longs on the right side, stop-loss at 3295, targets 3336→3356→3400
· Downward Breakdown: When volume drops below 3270 and cannot recover within 1 hour, reduce long positions, stop-loss at 3285, targets 3254→3240
· Positioning: Increase long positions by 2-3% during initial breakout, total position can reach 8% after confirmation

Summary of the Most Optimal Current Strategy
It is recommended to adopt a “mainly long, hedging on resistance” slightly bullish approach. Before price clearly breaks below 3270 or above 3318, operate within the 3285-3315 zone, maintaining a 3-5% core long position. Focus on two key tests: the breakout of the 3314-3318 resistance zone and the retest of the 3284-3291 support zone.

Pay particular attention to volume changes—healthy rebounds require gentle volume increases. If volume shrinks during upward moves or volume surges without price progress, beware of rebound exhaustion. Conversely, sustained gentle volume increases above 3318 could further open the rebound space toward 3350-3400 zone.
#周末行情分析