#市场周期与价格预测 After reading the year-end summaries of these influential figures, one phenomenon worth noting is that the deviation between predictions and reality often reflects the process of market expectation adjustments.

Saylor's gap between 150,000 and the actual price, Hayes admitting that his forecast was "quite poor," Lee directly cutting from 250,000 to 100,000—these are not merely mistakes but adjustments based on market signals at different stages. The key is to look at the on-chain data supporting their expectation adjustments.

From a data perspective, institutional inflows are indeed happening, but the pace and scale are lower than the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the year. What’s more worth tracking now is the specific destination of funds at the end of December—are large investors gradually building positions or choosing to wait and see? Price predictions themselves are less valuable than observing the flow of funds behind those predictions.

Market cycles work this way: optimistic expectations often overestimate the steepness of the trend. The focus is not on who’s right or wrong in their predictions, but on extracting genuine market signals from mistakes—whale wallets, contract holdings, capital flows—these are the basis for the next stage of judgment.