#美联储降息 The global stock market increased by 21% in 2025, and this rally is indeed exciting! The dual boost of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the AI boom, along with three consecutive years of growth in Asia, have pushed the stock market to new highs.

However, the following words are a bit sobering—valuations are already so high, whether they can continue to soar in 2026 depends entirely on how gentle the Federal Reserve is. Investors are hoping for a "moderate Federal Reserve," but behind this is actually a bet that policies will continue to loosen.

Historical data shows an average increase of 1.4% in January, with 6 out of 6 times seeing gains, which sounds good. But the problem is that high valuations combined with policy divergence mean that the risks for next year are indeed increasing. Friends entering the market now need to think carefully—are you taking over the baton or making the final move? In any case, the New Year’s market should be approached with optimism but also caution—don't be blinded by the gains.