Right now, three things are directly affecting market sentiment.

First, look at inflation data. The CPI and PPI released in mid-January are the most direct catalysts—if the numbers exceed expectations, the rate cut bets will be cut, and risk assets including cryptocurrencies will come under pressure. But conversely, if the data is moderate and inflation continues to steadily decline, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path will become clearer, real yields will decrease accordingly, and market liquidity will improve.

Second, the Federal Reserve's attitude shift. Inflation data will directly influence the market's judgment on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts. Once the rate cut cycle becomes clear, institutional funds will be more enthusiastic about risk asset allocation.

Third, regulation. The U.S. Senate is reviewing the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," which is different from previous efforts—industry players are expected to gain a truly clear regulatory framework. The impact of this on medium- to long-term market sentiment and institutional participation cannot be underestimated.

If all three conditions develop positively, funds will naturally flow into risk assets in a loose liquidity environment. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may see a rally, but this rise is likely to be more "institutional style" rather than a pure retail speculative frenzy.