#市场周期与价格预测 Seeing the latest report on on-chain data analysis, it's quite interesting. Ancient ETH chips with a cost below $400 each start to massively profit and escape every time they break through the $4,000 mark, which has become a signal for a temporary market top. Last March, there was a $600 million profit-taking in a single day, and in June, a massive $1 billion outflow. By September and October this year, the scale remained above $500 million.

What does this tell us? Long-term holders are very honest; they won't deceive. When these chips start to move, it's often a signal of a market top. Currently, there are still 21 million of these ancient chips in hand, and this stock is enough to exert pressure on the market.

If you're engaging in airdrops or other project interactions, you can refer to this cyclical characteristic to adjust your pace. You don't necessarily need to chase the high at the peak; instead, consider reducing your aggressiveness when profit-taking behaviors become obvious. Grasping key moments with minimal cost is more worthwhile than blindly chasing the trend. Keep observing these data trends, as they are often more valuable than candlestick charts.