2026-01-17 03:24:53

Recently, I have been observing several market phenomena and feel it is necessary to organize them.

First, let's talk about liquidity issues—the MAG Seven Sisters have been experiencing blood loss for the past ten weeks without any improvement. Looking at the US economy, marginal funds are orderly fleeing, with the first wave of withdrawal starting from August 2025, and another round in October. Each time funds withdraw, the yield curve of some leading indices drops like a staircase【Figure 1】.

The spread also has problems. The US10Y-US03M indicator has already moved out of the inversion zone and is clearly entering a recession warning area【Figure 2】. Considering that 2026 is the US midterm election year, which historically often accompanies a bear market, it is no coincidence.

The cryptocurrency market is no exception—it is already in a bear market. Even more painful is the US labor market, where the structural deterioration of the unemployment rate has lasted over 30 weeks, and no measures can stop this trend【Figure 3】.

These signals confirm our judgment from the fourth quarter of last year: 2026 is very likely to be a major bear year. The current pre-fatigue state of the market is actually the inertia of decelerating momentum, which has always preceded recessions in history.

All signs point to a cold winter. Instead of passively responding, it is better to proactively implement macroeconomic defenses and hedging strategies. This matter should be put on the agenda.

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MysteryBoxBuster

· 5h ago

Is 2026 really going to be a wash? Is it too early to start accumulating stablecoins now? This wave of signals being discussed does seem quite frightening, especially the unemployment rate data which looks particularly ugly. Damn, missing out again, this rhythm is too hard to grasp. The liquidity shortage among the Seven Sisters has directly led them to lie flat, truly no prospects. Rather than waiting to get cut, we really need to put hedging on the agenda, this is not a joke. A bearish year in the 26 election cycle? It seems history really will repeat itself. This analysis clearly put in a lot of effort, but honestly, I still trust the technicals more. The recession signals are so obvious that we can only bet that the FED will pivot, otherwise there’s really little room for a rebound. If things are already like this in the US, can crypto still hold up? It feels like sooner or later, we’ll all sink together.

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StakeHouseDirector

· 5h ago

Liquidity shortage, capital outflow, worsening unemployment... After this series of measures, 2026 indeed looks a bit uncertain. To be honest, I felt last year that this wave of momentum was off, and now with the data laid out, it's hard to hold on.

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UnluckyMiner

· 5h ago

Oh no, another big bear market feast. 2026 is really going to be freezing to death. --- Liquidity shortage has been going on for so many weeks, I really can't play anymore. --- The speed of the US economy fleeing is so fast, I might as well just lie flat. --- Midterm election years tend to bring a bearish trend; history just loves to repeat itself. --- Unemployment rate worsening for over 30 weeks and still not stopping? Then let's just wait to be harvested. --- A bearish year in 2026? My coins have already cooled off completely, now I just want to buy the dip. --- Talking about macro defensive hedging strategies is easy, but the problem is we have no bullets. --- Every time funds withdraw, the index drops; it actually looks quite satisfying. --- Instead of defensive strategies, it's better to bet on the right direction. Who knows? --- When winter comes, we just bundle up tightly; anyway, we can't change the overall trend.

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MidnightSeller

· 5h ago

Is a big bear market coming in 2026... Bro, I've already cleared my positions, just waiting to buy the dip. --- Liquidity shortage has lasted so long and still hasn't shown any signs of recovery, it's really time to wake up. --- The US midterm election cycle is always like this; it's just the cycle of history. --- The labor market is in such bad shape that even recession warnings are no longer a big deal. --- Talking about hedging strategies is easy, but few can really stick to them. --- Crypto is also joining the funeral, it looks like this bear market will really be long-term. --- Margin funds are one after another fleeing, I’m very familiar with this rhythm. --- Actually, now might be the best time to build positions, it all depends on who can hold their nerve. --- Ten weeks of blood shortage haven't eased yet, oh, this rhythm feels off. --- Before winter arrives, it always feels so dead and gloomy.

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