A recent interesting phenomenon worth discussing: the Department of Justice's investigation into the Federal Reserve has, paradoxically, led the market to vote with capital in support of Powell's independence stance. What does this reveal?

On the surface, the dollar is weakening, and gold is rallying, which usually indicates the market is repricing risk. But upon closer reflection, the pricing logic this time is a bit different—institutions seem more afraid not of inflation itself, but of the potential loss of central bank independence.

**What policy-level changes have occurred**

First, the re-pricing of rate cut expectations. To maintain credibility, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term, meaning the market's previously anticipated "rapid rate cut wave" will be delayed. This directly impacts asset allocations built on loose liquidity.

Second, the nature of volatility is changing. The tug-of-war between political pressure and the central bank's resilience will generate more "event-driven shocks." The correlation and volatility between traditional financial assets and crypto markets will become more frequent and intense. The investment logic of solely betting on easing cycles is starting to become less tenable.

**Where the crypto market might go**

In the short term, rising macro uncertainty could lead to a contraction in risk appetite. Highly leveraged positions should be approached with caution, as they may face sudden liquidity shocks.

But in the longer term, every crack in the trust of the traditional financial system adds narrative support for "alternative assets." The story of Bitcoin as "digital gold" might gain more implicit backing amid prolonged central bank power struggles. When the stability of traditional systems is questioned, an asset that doesn't rely on any single decision-maker becomes more attractive.

**Practical steps**

If your holdings are mainly centered around "rate cut expectations" (such as high-volatility altcoins), now is the time to reassess your time horizon. The realization of this expectation might be delayed beyond initial estimates.

Second, observe how Bitcoin performs during macro events. Especially when policy shocks occur, can it outperform traditional safe-haven assets like gold? Its relative performance will give you some signals.

Most importantly, in this policy game cycle, position discipline is far more valuable than directional guesses. Even the most accurate judgment can't withstand a leveraged liquidation.

**Core logic**

This game essentially reminds us of a fundamental fact: the greatest risk is often not the economic data itself, but the erosion of the rule system. When decision-makers shift from "technocratic officials" to "political pawns," market pricing logic ceases to be purely economic calculation.

For investors, rather than guessing the next move of policymakers, it's better to think clearly: if the fulcrum of the old system begins to wobble, how should your assets be reallocated? Perhaps the answer lies within new asset classes.