#美联储货币政策 U.S. Treasury volatility has plummeted from 99 at the beginning of the year to 59, and this downward trajectory is definitely worth analyzing. The confirmation of the Fed's rate cut cycle has stabilized bond market expectations, and risk assets are also breathing a sigh of relief.

From a copy-trading perspective, this macro environment shift will directly influence traders' style switching. Experts who rely on volatility arbitrage have not been doing well lately, but the success rate of conservative traders has actually increased—market sentiment has calmed down, noise has decreased, and the true trend has become clearer.

The key is to reassess the few assets you follow at this point: Are their strategies based on volatility or trend-following? The ICE MOVE index experienced its largest annual decline since 2009, indicating that uncertainty is converging this year. Future trading logic will gradually shift from "defensive volatility" to "seeking direction."

It is recommended to reevaluate your copy-trading portfolio—moderately reduce the proportion of high-frequency, aggressive traders, and increase the weight of those who accurately buy the dip or sell the top in a low-volatility environment. Position sizing should be dynamically adjusted; this bond market stabilization is not the end, but a signal of the game rules restarting.