#机构资金流入 After reviewing the predictions and recaps from these three industry leaders, I feel more reassured. Saylor said that institutional inflows are steadily driving Bitcoin higher, but from an expectation of $150,000 to now, Tom Lee has cut his target from $250,000 to $100,000, and Arthur Hayes outright admitted that his predictions are "quite poor"—this is exactly what I’ve been emphasizing: no matter how smart a trader is, they cannot escape the market’s true feedback.

The key point is this: institutional capital inflow is indeed a long-term logic, but short-term price movements depend on a combination of sentiment, liquidity, and risk events. This is how I filter when following trades—I avoid traders who make definitive conclusions, and instead focus on those who can dynamically adjust expectations, admit mistakes, and continue to optimize their strategies.

Incorrect predictions are not the real problem; the real issue is stubbornly clinging to wrong logic. Looking at what major traders are doing now, some are adjusting their position structures, some are switching to a swing trading mindset—these are signals worth following. At the end of the year, rather than chasing highs, observing the actual pace of institutional building positions is much more useful than listening to predictions.