#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes are out, and the core disagreement remains the same old issue: inflation vs. employment, which is more important.

On the data front, most officials support continued rate cuts, but opinions differ on timing and magnitude. The November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, and CPI growth was below expectations. Both signals seem to support a rate cut. However, the minutes explicitly state that some officials prefer to wait for more data before making a decision, and the probability of holding rates steady at the January meeting is increasing.

The key here is that swings in policy expectations will directly affect on-chain capital flows. When easing expectations strengthen, they are often accompanied by capital inflows into risk assets; but the presence of disagreements means that uncertainty premiums may be re-priced. Recent movements in whale wallets and large contract positions are worth continuous monitoring, especially before the Federal Reserve's signals become clearer.

The takeaway for strategy is: avoid over-interpreting a single signal, wait for the next round of data confirmation, as market pricing power may still be within a fluctuating range.