#比特币2026年行情展望 Risk signals are already very clear.

From the inverted yield curve, the规律 of midterm election cycles, to the signs of a weakening job market, the probability of a recession or a significant stock market correction (drop over 20%) in the first half of 2026 has exceeded 75%. Instead of waiting passively, it's better to adjust your position in advance.

**Three practical suggestions:**

**Reduce risk exposure** — If your portfolio still heavily weights tech growth stocks or crypto assets like $BTC, $ETH, any rebound is an opportunity to trim. Selling during a dead cat bounce is much smarter than waiting for the limit-down.

**Add to defensive positions** — U.S. long-term bonds (TLT/IEF) will become hot commodities once a recession is confirmed and the central bank cuts interest rates, as bond capital gains will emerge. Gold, on the other hand, is always the last card to hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks.

**Cash is an option** — Keep 20-30% in cash. This is not conservatism, but a strategic move to precisely position yourself during the big drop in midterm election years (usually around Q3). When opportunities arise, you won't be caught empty-handed.