The Federal Reserve's policy direction has become the recent focus of attention. According to the latest expectations, there is a high probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in January, which has basically become a market consensus. The real point of interest lies ahead—the probability of a rate cut in March is currently only 20.8%, and the entire 2025 rate cut space is estimated to be 1-2 times, with a total range of 25-50 basis points. The overall policy stance remains quite cautious.

What does this mean for crypto assets? Simply put, once a rate cut actually occurs, the released liquidity will inevitably seek an outlet, and risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will naturally become the primary targets for funds. In the medium to long term, this is positive news, especially as institutional funds continue to deploy, providing real capital to support the market bottom.

But we also need to be cautious of the other side—if the rate cut is delayed or inflation data rebounds, there could be short-term adjustment pressures. The performance of $BTC at the $90,000 level is very critical; whether it can hold this support line will directly affect subsequent trends. $ETH has also been fluctuating in line with the rhythm recently, so it’s important to keep an eye on policy changes and macroeconomic data trends at all times.