Looking at this from this angle is quite interesting. The 2-year government bond yield and Polymarket's forecast line both experienced sharp fluctuations when that news came out.

But there's a detail here—bond traders mainly get their information from Bloomberg. What about Polymarket traders? They refresh Twitter. At that time, Twitter happened to have issues, so the reaction on Polymarket was delayed.

Simply put, the different information channels in various markets determine the speed of response. Traditional financial markets have a more direct flow of information, while prediction markets rely on social media for information dissemination, adding a variable. This also explains why you see the trends in the two markets not aligning perfectly in time.