An extreme hypothetical scenario worth imagining: what if a mysterious transaction from 2046 suddenly appears on the blockchain, and the timestamped candlestick chart clearly predicts that a certain liquid staking token will go to zero in 2028? How would this news spread?



The answer is: it would trigger a market panic based on a "time paradox."

This is essentially the **ultimate deduction of inverse induction**. If the market is convinced that the future value of an asset is zero, rational investors will rush to sell before it hits zero. This selling pressure will push forward infinitely, eventually reaching the present. The logic is airtight.

For stablecoin protocols, this exposes a fatal **self-fulfilling dilemma**. Even if that NFT is just a prank, as long as enough people believe in it (or fear others believe in it), a run becomes a reality. The system's confidence collapse doesn't require real bad news—just a credible "death sentence."

The key point is: the value of liquid staking tokens is not only based on the current BNB price but also on the discounted cash flow of future returns. When the discount rate becomes infinite due to "certainty from the future," the present value inevitably approaches zero. This reveals a sharp truth—**what we are trading is not the code itself, but a shared imagination of the future**. Once this collective imagination is shattered by some seemingly future-derived certainty, even sophisticated mathematical models can't prevent the collapse of confidence.

In the financial world, confidence is a collateral more precious than gold and more fragile than glass. This logical chain warrants deep reflection from all DeFi participants.
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MeltdownSurvivalistvip
· 13h ago
Wow, this logical chain is a complete self-fulfilling prophecy. Once confidence shatters, the market is done.
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DaoResearchervip
· 13h ago
The discussion about the discount rate approaching infinity has some issues... need to review the token economics white paper.
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SeasonedInvestorvip
· 13h ago
Damn, I give in to this logic. To put it simply, human nature is more fragile than any mathematical model.
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DuskSurfervip
· 13h ago
Wow, this logical chain is so tightly connected, confidence is really more fragile than glass.
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SatoshiHeirvip
· 13h ago
Amazing, this is the ultimate interpretation of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once confidence shatters, mathematical models are useless.
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RektRecordervip
· 13h ago
Damn, this logical chain hit me hard. The phrase "confidence is more fragile than glass" is spot on.
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