The market trend of XPL, I think it can be viewed like this—short-term consolidation, medium-term unlocking pressure, but long-term potential depends on whether the ecosystem can truly land. Overall, the probability of "first suppress then rise" is higher; the key is to observe the degree of unlocking digestion and the speed of ecosystem development.

**What is the current fundamental situation?**

The token price is currently around $0.146, which is about 91% below the September high of $1.68. The market cap is approximately $302 million. In terms of supply, the total is 10 billion tokens, with only 1.8 billion in circulation, and 73% of the tokens are still held on exchanges, indicating a relatively high short-term selling pressure risk.

Technically, the daily chart shows an arc bottom pattern, with key support at $0.115. Resistance levels above are $0.18 (the 50-day moving average) and $0.33 (the previous neckline). If it can hold above the 50-day MA, the reversal signal will be stronger; but if it breaks below support, there is a risk of testing lower levels again.

**Why are some still optimistic about it?**

The stablecoin sector itself offers opportunities. By 2026, the supply of stablecoins may reach around $420 billion. XPL focuses on stablecoin payments, with relatively clear application scenarios. From a technical perspective, PlasmaBFT’s high TPS, EVM compatibility, and zero-fee USDT transfers are attractive selling points. Historically, TVL once reached $5.6 billion, backed by institutions like Tether and Peter Thiel, indicating product recognition.

In terms of tokenomics, 40% of tokens are allocated for ecosystem incentives, with inflation decreasing from 5% to 3% annually. This release schedule is relatively smooth, avoiding abrupt supply shocks.

**But there are risks too.**

The biggest issue is unlocking. On July 28, 2.5 billion tokens will unlock, accounting for a quarter of the total supply. If ecosystem growth cannot keep pace with supply increases, selling pressure could be severe. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on the stablecoin sector is tightening, and XPL’s heavy reliance on Tether’s ecosystem means policy changes could have a direct impact.

Competition must also be acknowledged—TRON, Solana, and others already have an early advantage in stablecoin payments. For XPL to catch up, it needs to accelerate differentiation and real-world landing.

**What about the trend outlook?**

In the short term (3 months), the price is likely to fluctuate within the $0.11 to $0.18 range, forming a bottom. If it can stabilize above $0.18, it could move up to $0.25; but if it falls below $0.11, it might test $0.09.

In the medium term, the July unlocking will be a dominant factor. After that selling wave, a 20-40% correction might occur. However, if TVL and on-chain transaction volume grow in sync, there’s a chance to rebound to the $0.2–$0.4 range by the end of the year.

As for the long-term ceiling, honestly, it still depends on the real landing of the ecosystem. If stablecoin payment scenarios truly explode and regulations remain relatively friendly, the price could surge to $0.5–$1.0; otherwise, be prepared for a low-range oscillation between $0.1 and $0.3.

**Personal trading approach:**

In the short term, consider building small positions at $0.12–$0.14, with a stop-loss at $0.10, targeting $0.18–$0.25, and act quickly in and out. In the medium term, proactively reduce positions before and after unlocking to hedge risks, and wait for signs of selling pressure easing and ecosystem data improving before re-entering. For the long term, keep a close eye on TVL changes, actual USDT transfer volumes on-chain, and regulatory policy developments—these are key indicators for judging authenticity.