On January 16th, there were no particularly major data releases in the macro market, but the volatility was quite significant. To put it simply, what the market is trading now is not good or bad news, but **uncertainty itself**.

**First Layer: Trump's Tariff Chess Game**

The U.S. Supreme Court announced it will issue a ruling on January 20th (next Tuesday), but it has not yet been confirmed whether it pertains to the tariff case. This kind of suspense is the most frustrating—the market cannot get clear signals and can only "defend" itself in advance. The direction of trade policy will directly affect global capital flows.

**Second Layer: Uncertainty in Federal Reserve Personnel**

Trump publicly expressed hope that Harker would remain, but the market sensed another possibility—the probability of Kevin Wirth’s nomination is rising. The key issue is: Wirth indeed faces less resistance in the Senate, but his background is "inflation-averse and hawkish." Even if the new government adopts a more moderate stance after taking office, the market has no confidence in the sustainability of this shift. The attitude of the Federal Reserve Chair directly determines the interest rate path, which is a major factor influencing the entire financial market.

**Third Layer: Geopolitical Risks Have Not Truly Dispersed**

Surface-level tensions in the Middle East have eased, but U.S. aircraft carriers are still continuously approaching the Middle East. It looks like the risks are suppressed, but in reality, it’s like a volcano with a lid—pressure is building up, not disappearing.

All three lines are fluctuating, and the market is inevitably cautious. Safe-haven assets and interest rate markets have already begun to react, indicating that institutions and smart money are rebalancing their positions. At this moment, cautious responses and controlling the pace are much wiser than blindly being aggressive.