2026-01-16 18:30:01

Is this another bear market bounce?

Price is currently testing the 365-day moving average—the exact level where the last bear market rally got rejected back in 2022. History could be rhyming here.

What's interesting is the divergence between sentiment and technicals. On-chain and market sentiment feels genuinely euphoric right now. Yet the indicators? They're still flashing bear market signals. This mismatch is worth watching closely.

The chart tells a story: when euphoria meets resistance at key levels, rejections tend to be sharp. So the real question isn't whether we're rallying—we clearly are—but whether this is genuine momentum or just another false breakout that fades at a crucial junction.

Keep eyes on that 365-day MA. If it breaks decisively, narrative shifts. If rejected again, the bear case remains intact.

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RektDetective

· 22h ago

Here we go again, the déjà vu of the 365-day moving average flipping, experienced all over again in 2022. Really like to stumble in the same place, huh? This time the mood is so high, but the indicators are still calling for a bear market. It's almost another fake-out. If it can't break through, it will continue to fall. It's that simple.

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down_only_larry

· 22h ago

The 365-day moving average really has some significance... The rebound in 2022 got stopped here, and now it's happening again? History tends to repeat itself. Emotionally, things are heating up, on-chain data is also sky-high, but why are technical indicators still bearish? This contrast is frustrating. Breaking or not breaking this line will determine the next move—either a narrative shift or continuing the bear market story, it all depends on how things unfold next.

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BloodInStreets

· 22h ago

Here we go again, that position from 2022—will history really repeat itself? I doubt it. Explosive emotions paired with cold, data-driven signals—this kind of mismatch is the most dangerous, often becoming the tombstone for bottom-fishers. The 365-day moving average either breaks through or gets a headshot; there is no middle ground.

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just_another_fish

· 22h ago

It's that 365-day moving average again, I knew history would repeat itself. Last time in 2022, it got hammered here, and now it's happening again? Sentiment and technicals are completely out of sync; everyone is excited, but the indicators are still bearish... It's a bit strange.

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0xInsomnia

· 22h ago

The 365-day moving average is back? It was just here that I got proven wrong last time. Will history really repeat itself...

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