Bitcoin appears to be replicating the market cycle framework that Jesse Livermore, the pioneering day trader, documented decades ago. His timeless observations on price movement reveal three distinct phases that still govern how assets trade today.



First comes the accumulation phase—this is when informed capital quietly builds positions while the broader market remains indifferent or pessimistic. Smart money operates in the shadows, no headlines, just methodical buying at depressed levels. The masses sleep, unaware of what's unfolding.

Then the breakout arrives. Price escapes the consolidation range with conviction. But here's the psychological twist: even as Bitcoin breaks higher, disbelief persists. Most traders remain skeptical, thinking it's another false move. This disconnect between price action and sentiment is precisely what fuels the next leg.

Finally comes the vertical phase—where conviction shifts. Skeptics capitulate, FOMO kicks in, and momentum accelerates sharply. What started as quiet accumulation transforms into visible, sometimes dramatic upward movement.

The pattern repeats because human psychology doesn't change. Fear drives the lows, disbelief delays the highs, and greed completes the cycle. Bitcoin's current price action suggests we may be witnessing which chapter of this framework is playing out right now.
BTC-0,55%
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 8
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
AltcoinTherapistvip
· 3h ago
It sounds like the same old psychological tricks, but this time there's really something to it. Human nature indeed doesn't change. The question is, we all know these theories, but can we still make money knowing them? During the accumulation phase, those big players hide their moves very well. How can retail investors know what they're doing? By the time we find out, they've already taken off. The paradox is, the more you understand this framework, the easier it is to get trapped, because you always think you can see through it. But in the end, you're still harvested. What stage are we in now? Honestly.
View OriginalReply0
GasWastingMaximalistvip
· 14h ago
This theory sounds good, but what stage are we actually at now? It feels like we're still in the scam and money-throwing phase...
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-e87b21eevip
· 14h ago
Damn, it's the Livermore theory again... What stage are we at right now? Honestly, I'm a bit confused.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-5854de8bvip
· 14h ago
There's nothing wrong with that, but the problem is that most of us only realized in the second stage, and smart money had already left.
View OriginalReply0
LiquidatedAgainvip
· 14h ago
Once again, liquidated. Looking at this crappy paper... Is Jesse Livermore's method still used now? We retail investors didn't even wait for the vertical phase and got liquidated already.
View OriginalReply0
NFTArchaeologisvip
· 14h ago
This theory is actually applicable on the blockchain as well, just under a different name called "Project Cycle Theory." The cycle of human greed and fear has always been the same...
View OriginalReply0
MEVHunterBearishvip
· 14h ago
It's the same old tired argument again... So now, whenever the crypto community discusses something, they have to frame it within Livermore's framework?
View OriginalReply0
WhaleWatchervip
· 14h ago
That's right, now is the time when skeptics are being cut off.
View OriginalReply0
  • Pin

Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)