Recently, a well-known voice in the investment circle made a statement: currently, they are not considering entering the gold market and will only take action if the price drops by one-fifth. This judgment is worth pondering.

Indeed, gold has just completed its strongest annual return since 1979, with central banks continuously increasing their holdings and safe-haven funds flowing in steadily. The scene is unprecedented, and it seems no one dares to bet against it. However, this investment expert's logic is that the good times are over. He believes the U.S. economy will reverse, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly, which will put downward pressure on gold prices. After all, gold has no interest income, and during a dollar appreciation cycle, this disadvantage will be amplified infinitely.

Interestingly, his focus has already shifted elsewhere. He views the Chinese stock market as a "sustainable growth engine," attracted by its potential to catch up with the U.S. in high-end chips and artificial intelligence. Assets related to India, South Korea, and Taiwan are also on his investment radar.

What is the current market situation? On Friday, gold prices retreated to around $4,600, and the dollar is indeed strengthening, while geopolitical risks are easing. The bullish camp is beginning to waver. However, the world's largest gold ETF holdings are hitting new highs, creating a contradictory signal: institutional investors are still increasing their positions, while the soothsayers are reducing theirs.

Is this ultimately a bigger opportunity or a risk transfer in a relay race game? The long-term safe-haven attribute of gold remains unchanged, but short-term price momentum is indeed shifting. For cryptocurrency investors, this macro pattern change is also worth paying attention to—shifts in capital flows often rewrite the rhythm of the entire market.