The 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Reimagined: From Price Fluctuations to Infrastructure Era

SerumDegen · 2026-01-16T11:44:15+00:00

Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo predicts that by 2026, the crypto market will shift from speculation to infrastructure development, influenced by macro uncertainties and institutional funding. He points out that while Bitcoin is a barometer of risk sentiment, changes in market structure will determine its upward potential; mere capital inflows are not enough.

SerumDegen

2026-01-16 11:44:15

Abstract generation in progress

【CryptoPunk】Kraken's global economist Thomas Perfumo recently shared an interesting perspective — by 2026, the crypto market will undergo a major adjustment, shifting focus from price speculation to infrastructure building.

He pointed out that macroeconomic uncertainty and the influx of institutional funds are colliding, reshaping Bitcoin's cycle rhythm. While Bitcoin remains a barometer of risk sentiment, the dynamics of demand, liquidity, and risk channels have changed.

Last year, the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US, along with various digital asset financial companies, contributed nearly $44 billion in net spot demand. But this doesn't mean everything is smooth sailing — long-term holders have released a large amount of tradable inventory, and market performance hasn't been particularly stellar. Coupled with frequent regulatory actions in the US this year, the form of on-chain liquidity is inevitably being reshaped.

The key question is: without clear risk appetite support, the momentum of institutional tools is likely to slow down, and premiums will be compressed, which will squeeze Bitcoin's upside potential. In other words, just capital inflows are not enough; changes in market structure are the decisive factor.

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SatoshiHeir

· 14h ago

It should be pointed out that this guy mixes up the cycle theory and infrastructure theory, clearly trying to ride the coattails of the hype. The real reshuffle has long begun and is not in 2026, as on-chain data shows. --- Another academic armchair strategist. $44 billion in net spot? Laughable. The core variable is the long-term holders selling off. Such an obvious fact needs my correction. --- Returning to the fundamental thinking of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper: Bitcoin has never needed Wall Street to define cycles. These institutions are the real sources of risk; don’t be brainwashed by their narratives. --- Based on on-chain data analysis, this argument has a fatal flaw—liquidity reshaping ≠ the era of infrastructure. I’ve seen too many causal confusions like this. --- Frequent regulatory actions? You’re just saying that. The true determinant of fate has always been code, not the pen of those bureaucrats in the US. --- Listen to me: infrastructure construction is essentially a guise for centralized power. Don’t be fooled by the name of "decentralization." --- $44 billion sounds impressive, but the market performance isn’t that bright—that’s the key point. In plain terms, it’s saying—without consensus support, capital will ultimately flee.

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DeepRabbitHole

· 01-16 12:13

$44 billion sounds impressive, but are long-term holders all selling? Something doesn't feel right. The infrastructure era in 2026? Nice words, but it all depends on who can survive until then. Institutional funds encountering macro uncertainties—until I see who wins this game, I won't believe it. ETFs crazily accumulating then suddenly flipping—I'm tired of this routine. The real question is when liquidity will stabilize; right now, it's just a show.

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quietly_staking

· 01-16 12:12

Ha, talking about 2026 again? Starting to hype it up now for something so far away. 440 billion in spot demand sounds like a lot, but are long-term holders dumping? Isn't this just the old trick of the whales passing the baton? The infrastructure era is coming? I only care if my coins are still here.

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ChainProspector

· 01-16 12:08

Is this 44 billion really that attractive? Feels like just another scam to fleece the newbies. --- The 2026 infrastructure era? I don't think so, institutions are just shifting blame now. --- Long-term holders are just stockpiling; isn't this the big players escaping the top? Should have seen through it long ago. --- Frequent regulation scares everyone away from trading; is this time really different? --- That 44 billion in ETFs looks huge, but it's just a trick to fleece new investors—nothing interesting. --- Macroeconomic collisions? Honestly, it's just a lack of consensus. Why talk about infrastructure? --- Switching from price speculation to infrastructure? Uh... isn't that just a story they tell when prices stop rising? --- Liquidity reshaping sounds impressive, but it's really just retail investors running out of money. --- I just want to know if there will still be profits in 2026. Don't talk to me about cycle theories. --- Institutions mainly care about arbitrage opportunities; they don't really care about long-term development.

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BearHugger

· 01-16 11:49

$44 billion sounds like a lot, but these long-term holders are dumping their holdings, feeling exhausted. Can we really shift to infrastructure in 2026? This claim is made every cycle... When regulation comes, liquidity disperses. Will institutions still dare to enter then? Honestly, without risk appetite, no one can do anything. Bitcoin still depends on sentiment. Infrastructure era? I think it's still a game of price cycles.

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AllInDaddy

· 01-16 11:46

4.4 billion really can do something? Long-term users dumping their holdings cause the entire market to underperform. This is the current situation. If this wave truly shifts towards infrastructure, I would look forward to it. It's better than constantly obsessing over K-line charts. Institutions have entered, but liquidity is instead being locked up? That logic is a bit absurd. 2026 is still early. It's mostly empty talk to say that risk appetite is supporting now. Just wait and see. Everyone is betting on the next cycle, but who has actually invested in infrastructure? Most are still just speculating on concepts.

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PhantomHunter

· 01-16 11:46

$44 billion net spot demand sounds great, but long-term holders are playing the game of unloading very skillfully. Is the infrastructure era coming? I think it still depends on how macro strategies play out. ETFs are just institutions' cash machines; real liquidity is still hanging by a thread. Let's talk about 2026; trusting such predictions is a bit too early. Long-term holders are offloading, isn't this just the rhythm of harvesting the leek and then setting up a platform? Seeing institutional funds pouring in, I actually feel more anxious...

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