Gold forecast: XAU/USD trapped by bears, key support at the line of fire

mev_me_maybe · 2026-01-16T11:33:38+00:00

The current gold forecast indicates a growing bearish pressure, with XAU/USD near key support at $4,400. Technical signals point to further declines, but a rebound could face resistance at $4,500. Market focus is shifting towards U.S. economic data over geopolitical tensions.

mev_me_maybe

2026-01-16 11:33:38

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Technical signals indicate further weakening

The current gold forecast suggests increasing downward pressure in the market. XAU/USD is currently hovering around the level of 4,428.46 USD, just 28 points away from a significant support at 4,400 USD. This technical barrier is associated with the 100-period moving average— a long-term stability level in effect since mid-November— and coincides with the peaks recorded at the turn of December and January.

Decisive bearish dominance in the markets

The pattern of lower highs this week, combined with deteriorating technical indicators, suggests the possibility of a more intense correction. The MACD histogram has entered negative territory, while the MACD line itself has moved below the signal line, amplifying bearish signals. Additional weakness is reflected in the RSI index, which has fallen below the 50 threshold— the boundary separating bullish from bearish territories.

Price scenarios: what’s next for XAU/USD?

Breaking below the 4,400 USD level could open the way to earlier lows from January 2 (4,309 USD) and deeper dips from a few days ago around 4,270 USD. On the other hand, a potential rebound might face resistance around 4,500 USD, where bulls struggled in recent sessions. The historical peak from December 26 at 4,449 USD remains a key point for traders monitoring longer-term trends.

The market shifts focus from geopolitics

Market participants are increasingly paying attention to economic signals from the USA rather than geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, China, Iran, or around Greenland. Friday’s release of Nonfarm Payrolls data could act as a catalyst for further price movements, especially as investors try to decode the Federal Reserve’s intentions regarding the path of interest rate cuts in the coming months.

(Technical analysis supported by artificial intelligence tools)

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