New Year Trading 2026: How Crypto Whales Position Their Holdings

New annual cycles bring recurring patterns in the crypto market. On New Year’s Day 2026, clear signals are already emerging in whale activities: while some large addresses are building aggressive buy positions, others are retreating from risky assets. This divergent behavior indicates differing market expectations and often marks the starting point for the first major moves of the year.

Technical Obstacles and Opportunities: The Multi-Coin Scenario

The first trading day of the year presents a mixed picture across the markets. Three positions stand out particularly, demonstrating how professional market participants are re-evaluating their allocations.

Chainlink (LINK): Where is the bullish potential?

The new year begins with accumulation activity in Chainlink. Large whale addresses have slightly increased their holdings around the turn of the year – from 505.34 million tokens on December 31 to 505.7 million tokens on January 1. These additional 360,000 tokens are worth approximately $4.9 million at current prices.

This cautious commitment is revealing. Historical data shows a strong seasonal pattern: in January 2025, LINK increased by 25.3 percent; in 2023, by 24.9 percent; and in 2021, by as much as 100.7 percent. The average January gain is thus around 26.4 percent. This statistic may explain the current buying strategy of the whales.

Technical milestones: The current price is at $13.72 (As of: January 15, 2026). A key resistance level is at $12.49 – only a small upward momentum of 2.5 percent is needed to break through this barrier. If this breakthrough succeeds, the next targets are at $13.36 and $13.76. The $13.76 mark has been a stubborn resistance zone since mid-December.

A solid break above $13.76 would target $15.01. If the price surpasses the psychological $15 mark, an extension to $16.77 could follow.

The bullish scenario collapses if LINK falls below $11.71. Then, the early whale engagement would quickly prove to be miscalibrated.

Ethena (ENA): Sell signals dominate

The opposite is true for Ethena. Here, whales reduced their positions on New Year’s Day. Holdings fell from 6.31 billion tokens to 6.29 billion – a sale of 20 million ENA worth about $4.4 million.

This liquidation is symptomatic of deeper concerns. The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethena has shrunk dramatically since October 2025 – from $14.98 billion to around $6.48 billion. This represents a decline of over 56 percent. When more than half of the total capital flows out, it signals declining user activity, lower lending, or eroding trust in the protocol.

Chart patterns and risks: The price pattern for ENA (currently $0.22, -5.1% in 7 days) shows a classic head-and-shoulders formation with a descending neckline. This setup is particularly treacherous because each bounce stops sooner than the previous one – a sign of increasing selling pressure.

A slide below the critical support at $0.15 could push the price another 25 percent lower, toward $0.10. The first critical level remains at $0.17.

Buyers need to break above $0.21 to reduce downward pressure. A sustained rise above $0.30 would invalidate the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.

Pendle (PENDLE): Buying in the risk zone

Pendle presents the most contrasting picture. Despite a 42 percent price decline since the November high, whales bought in on New Year’s Day, increasing their holdings from 193.54 million to 194.31 million tokens – 770,000 tokens worth about $1.63 million.

This engagement is counterintuitive, as the chart warns of dangers. A pronounced bearish flag has formed after the big price drop. The pattern indicates additional losses if support breaks.

What makes the whales confident?

An important clue is the Smart Money Index, which has just crossed above its signal line. Experienced institutional traders are also starting to accumulate. The whales might be following this professional conviction.

PENDLE is currently trading at $2.12 (-0.38% in 7 days). The first support level is at $1.81. A break below $1.65 would fully invalidate the flag and trigger strong selling pressure.

To the upside, PENDLE must surpass $1.94 to target the $2.31 mark. If it breaks out above $2.31, the bearish flag would be invalidated, and a full sentiment reversal could occur.

Conclusion: Divergent strategies at the start of the year

Whale activities on the first trading day of 2026 show a market in self-discovery. Chainlink benefits from seasonal hopes and technical upside potential. Ethena suffers from fundamental issues and is avoided by smart money. Pendle offers the most speculative setup – a risky buy betting on a mood reversal.

Traders should use these signals as a compass, not as a guarantee. The coming days will reveal whether the whales have correctly anticipated the January trend or if they will need to quickly unwind their positions.