Pi Coin tested with technical support – Will the market reaction still come?

Pi Coin (PI) currently trades at around $0.20 USD and has recorded a decline of 2.02 percent in the last 24 hours. Notably, the relative stability of the price persists despite a significant scam scandal that recently shook the community. While such security incidents typically lead to panic selling, the expected market reaction has so far been absent – or only delayed?

Security Vulnerability and Stolen Pi Coins: The Extent of the Incident

In December, over 4.4 million Pi Coins were stolen through an organized scam attack. The vulnerability was in the Payment-Request function of the Pi network. The Pi Core Team emphasizes that the technical system itself was not compromised, but attackers used targeted social engineering methods to deceive users. All transactions require explicit user confirmation, underscoring deliberate manipulation.

To minimize further losses, the Payment-Request feature was temporarily disabled. In one particularly affected wallet, between 700,000 and 800,000 PI were stolen. Despite this news, there was no immediate price reaction – the price stubbornly stabilized.

Technical Structure Under Pressure: The Descending Trend Channel

Since October 27, Pi Coin has been moving within a descending trend channel. However, the two trendlines show weak fundamentals with limited contact points. The lower support line is of critical importance – it acts as a hold in the downtrend.

This lower barrier at around $0.195 USD is currently the anchor point of the entire market equilibrium. If this level is broken, the technical structure loses its stability. A break would open the way to $0.182 USD and potentially $0.160 USD. Conversely, a recovery above $0.217 USD – the middle of the channel – would be the first substantial sign of genuine buyer interest, not just technical counter-movements.

Money Flow Analysis: Divergences Indicate Hidden Buying

The Money Flow Index (MFI) tells an interesting story. Between December 19 and 29, the price fell while the MFI rose simultaneously – a classic bullish divergence pattern. This indicates that small investors actively bought at lower prices, preventing sharper declines.

However, the MFI showed weakness on December 29, falling below its rising trendline and now sitting around 46. A fall below 37.8 would suggest that buying interest diminishes during price dips. This cushion has so far supported Pi Coin through the scam crisis.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) presents a different picture. This indicator measures larger institutional capital inflows via trading volume. The CMF recently increased and remains above zero. Notably, the CMF rose from December 20 to 31, even as the price declined – a sign of hidden institutional buying.

This pattern continued in November, when the CMF stayed above zero and Pi Coin subsequently gained about 31 percent before upward momentum waned. As long as this index remains positive, the current price range has support.

Contradictory Signals: A Delayed Reaction as a Risk

The indicators send mixed signals. The MFI warns of decreasing buying pressure, while the CMF continues to suggest institutional buying. This discrepancy is characteristic of market phases where a delayed reaction to negative news is possible. The scam shock could still impact the price – only with a delay.

The current technical structure provides enough support to avoid panic. But this calm could be deceptive. If the CMF falls below zero or the MFI drops below 37.8, institutional buyers might abandon their positions. In this scenario, a sharp market correction is likely.

Critical Price Levels and Scenarios Moving Forward

The immediate fate of Pi Coin depends on two developments:

Bullish Scenario: If the MFI stabilizes and the CMF continues to rise, Pi Coin could repeat the pattern seen in November – with target levels at $0.217 USD and $0.236 USD. A break above $0.283 USD would even exit the trend channel and turn the structure from bearish to neutral.

Bearish Scenario: If the MFI falls below the critical threshold of 37.8 and the CMF drops below zero again, this signals the end of institutional buying. A delayed market reaction to the scam news could then unfold, with price targets at $0.182 USD or lower.

The chart explains both the previous price resistance and the risk of an upcoming correction. The big question remains: Will this resistance hold, or was it only a temporary phenomenon before bad news fully takes effect?