Is XLM about to break through? Stellar RWA ecosystem approaches the $1 billion mark

Current Situation Review

Stellar has performed weakly over the past three months, declining approximately 34%. However, recent price movements have shown subtle changes—XLM is currently trading around $0.23, with a 24-hour decline of -4.69%, but compared to the previous sharp drop, the downward momentum has significantly weakened. Behind this “weak but not falling” situation, several noteworthy signals are hidden.

Fundamental Indicators of Reversal

The real usage of Stellar is accelerating. The network RWA (Real World Asset) value has increased from approximately $8.9 billion on December 31 to $9.86 billion in early January, a growth of 10.8% in just a few days, nearing the $10 billion mark. This indicates that capital is continuously flowing into the Stellar ecosystem rather than exiting.

This fundamental growth lays the foundation for price stability. In other words, although XLM’s price is still hesitant, the network’s actual value is rising against the trend.

Capital Flow Evidence

From the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, despite recent declines in XLM’s price, the CMF remains above zero, indicating ongoing net capital inflow. This perfectly aligns with the trend of RWA value growth—large funds are building positions.

More interesting is the Money Flow Index (MFI). From late November to late December, although Stellar hit new lows, the MFI indicator hovered at high levels and even continued to rise. What does this mean? Every dip is being bought up. As long as the MFI holds above the key level of 36, this “buy on dips” behavior will continue.

Technical Outlook Shows a Glimmer of Hope

On the daily chart, Stellar is forming a classic “inverted head and shoulders” pattern—this pattern typically appears near market bottoms. The left shoulder formed in November, the head printed at the end of December, and the recent pullback has carved out the right shoulder.

The neckline of the pattern is around $0.254, about 12% above the current price. Once the daily close breaks through this level, the inverted head and shoulders will be confirmed, and XLM could rebound. According to technical rules, the target after breakout is around $0.330, approximately a 30% increase.

Risks and Opportunities

Looking downward, the first support is at $0.223. If the daily closes below this, the inverted head and shoulders pattern will be weakened. Even more dangerous is $0.196; if this level is lost, the entire pattern will be invalidated.

But for now, XLM is caught between three forces: stable net capital inflow, continuous accumulation at low levels, and a clear breakout level overhead. The RWA ecosystem is growing, but the price has yet to catch up.

Final Question

Whether XLM can break through this resistance depends on a core issue: can the capital already flowing into the Stellar network resonate in the price? Both the fundamentals and capital flow are signaling positive, and the technical setup is ready. The rest depends on when the market will make its decision.