Bitcoin faces resistance at US$ 91,000: what changes with the MSCI decision and how investors should act

Bitcoin faced significant pressures this week, retreating 2.30% and trading near US$ 91,100, despite contradictory signals from major institutional accumulators. A whale wallet moved approximately US$ 280 million in cryptocurrencies, demonstrating ongoing interest from sophisticated players. However, the optimization promoted by MSCI in its index criteria created a tailwind that pressures both BTC and related crypto treasury stocks.

MSCI’s decision and its cascading impact on the market

The main point of contention stems from a methodological change in how companies with significant cryptocurrency exposure are treated. MSCI announced the end of automatic weight rebalancing in its indices—a mechanism that previously created predictable demand whenever new shares were issued.

For MicroStrategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, this change represents a paradigm shift. The company based its massive Bitcoin accumulation strategy on the continuous issuance of shares to raise capital, trusting that passive funds tracking the MSCI index would automatically acquire these new shares. In 2025, over US$ 15 billion in new shares were issued with this expectation.

With the end of automatic processes, this capital valve closes. Crypto Rover, an analyst, warned that the market underestimated the significance of this change—a silent trap for inattentive investors. The absence of passive institutional demand significantly hampers the flow for new capital increases, limiting the treasury’s expansion capacity in Bitcoin. MSTR shares immediately fell 4.10% after the announcement.

Technical hurdles and critical support levels for Bitcoin

On the chart, Bitcoin failed to break above the upper trendline of an ascending triangle on the daily timeframe. The asset now maintains a delicate position near the 50-day exponential moving average, around US$ 91,700, considered the primary short-term support.

If this level does not hold, a retracement to the US$ 88,000 to US$ 89,000 range becomes highly probable. This region contains the 20-day moving average and the lower base of the triangle, acting as a magnetic zone for buyers. If this structure is broken, the next technical target is projected at US$ 79,450, a move that would signal a deep trend reversal in the first quarter.

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, highlights that price control is being contested directly in the order book depths. Buyers are entrenched near US$ 92,000, while large players seem determined to test lower levels, in the 2026 annual opening range. Alan assesses that a return to US$ 87,500 is not a matter of possibility but simply of time—the order flow continues to signal a search for liquidity at lower levels.

Divergent behavior between accumulators and miners

On-chain data reveal a complex picture. Addresses classified as accumulators increased their holdings from 249,000 to 310,000 BTC in the first six days of January, ending a period of waiting that extended from September to December 2025. This movement signals a regain of institutional confidence.

Conversely, miners transferred approximately 33,000 BTC to trading platforms (including major exchanges) at the start of the year—a volume above the historical average. The pattern indicates profit-taking and cash strengthening after recent appreciation. Analysts note that, in isolation, this sale rarely causes deep corrections, provided institutional demand absorbs the additional supply.

Sentiment stabilizing but without exuberance

Sentiment indicators and flow on major platforms point to a gradual stabilization. November was marked by average daily sales of US$ 2.3 billion, while January opened with seven consecutive days of net buying. Although the average daily volume of around US$ 410 million is modest, it represents a significant inflection in collective psychology.

The Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index returned to the neutral zone for the first time since November, signaling the dissipation of extreme fear. According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., this return to neutrality suggests that the current movement is not hyperheated, opening doors for a more balanced and sustainable recovery.

Practical guidance: how to navigate this scenario

For investors interested in how to buy cryptocurrencies in this transitional environment, the moment calls for calculated caution. Present volatility creates both risks and opportunities.

More conservative buyers should consider accumulating in tranches as they approach identified support levels (US$ 91,700 and later US$ 88,000-89,000), rather than deploying capital in a single shot. This method reduces the risk of poor timing in such market conditions.

Medium- to long-term investors may evaluate how to buy cryptocurrencies during periods of pressure like the current, as institutional accumulators continue increasing positions—a sign of structural confidence in the asset.

The key will be monitoring whether institutional demand can consistently absorb miner supply. If it can, Bitcoin may stabilize and begin a new appreciation phase. Otherwise, lower technical levels will remain as targets.