Gold Today: Reading Technical Signals and the New Role of Reaction Assets in Fusion - January 8, 2026

Technical Overview: Gold XAUUSD Stalls After Surge

Gold prices pause at $4,447 per ounce after attempting to reach $4,480. This level creates a Fibonacci Extension of 141.4%, becoming a short-term risk point for sellers. As profit-taking pressure mounts, prices have retreated to test the first key support zone.

From the 4-hour chart observation, the current candlestick is holding near the short-term EMA. This level coincides with the psychological support and the Fibonacci 127.2% at $4,433, a critical defensive zone. The Stochastic RSI index has quickly moved out of the overbought zone, indicating that upward momentum has been somewhat exhausted.

Market Reaction to Economic Data: Confusion About the Direction

Amidst the confusing situation, last week’s US employment figures indicated a slowdown. The JOLTS data shows December job openings fell to 7.15 million, the lowest since March 2021. Meanwhile, the ADP private employment report showed an increase of only 41,000 jobs, both below expectations.

Generally, these data should weaken the dollar and give gold an opportunity to lead. However, the opposite has occurred. The confusing factor is the ISM Services PMI, which surged to 54.4 in December, indicating that the US service sector remains resilient and expanding faster than expected. Additionally, the employment index in the services sector is recovering, marking the first expansion after 7 months.

The US economic outlook is not entirely hopeless, prompting market players to be cautious and lock in profits rather than chasing gold higher.

Pressure: Global Funds Rebalance Portfolios with Fake Moves

The underlying and heavy problem stems from the mechanics of massive capital flows. Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights the most obvious danger: rebalancing that many funds must undertake.

In 2025, gold generated a 67% return, while equities soared nearly 150%, causing these assets to become overweight in portfolios. Index funds need to sell profitable assets to rebalance to their target proportions.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the selling pressure from portfolio rebalancing could reach $5.5 billion in the gold market, plus $5 billion in the currency markets. This is a large-scale outflow that disregards fundamental factors.

Additional signals come from the currency markets, which are showing a Double-top reversal on the daily chart. If March futures fall below $69,255, a large sell wave is expected, as currency markets often lead gold.

Looking Beyond Volatility: Target of $5,000 Still Close

Although short-term momentum has reversed, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. Hansen maintains a positive view and sets a price target of $5,000 for 2026.

The reason lies in the reactionary nature of gold, which has shifted from a simple inflation hedge to a core asset in a geopolitically fractured world and an escape from dollar risk. The People’s Bank of China continues to buy gold, reaching 14 months of accumulation, with an additional purchase of 30,000 ounces recently. This indicates strong demand from the government side.

For traders, a decline to $4,450 or lower is not the end of the rally but a pause to exhaust selling from portfolio adjustments. When this Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report shows weakness, pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates will intensify, and gold prices are ready to rebound.

Short-term Strategy: Defensive Positioning Above Key Support

Looking at the next 24 hours, the key behavior to watch is the price action at $4,433 – $4,440. If the 4-hour candlestick closes above this zone and a long lower wick appears, (Rejection Wick), it will confirm strong buying interest. Prices are then likely to rebound toward the resistance at $4,480 and aim for Fibonacci 161.8% at $4,551.

Conversely, if selling continues and prices clearly break below $4,433, the correction could deepen toward the middle of the channel or the previous support at $4,342, which is confirmed by the medium-term EMA.

The best strategy is to monitor candlestick behavior within the current range to time entries when the market signals clearly, rather than rushing to chase the trend amid ongoing selling pressure.

Key Supports to Watch

• $4,433
• $4,400
• $4,342

Key Resistances to Watch

• $4,480
• $4,520
• $4,551