Gold breaks the all-time high of $4,601 | XAUUSD analysis for January 12, 2026

Gold Hits Highest Level Ever: What’s Driving It?

On the morning of January 12, 2026, (XAUUSD) created a new record by breaking through the resistance at $4,600 per ounce and reaching an all-time high (ATH) at $4,601. This surge was not driven by typical economic data but resulted from a combination of political crises, weak labor figures, and global security concerns.

Employment Figures: Signs of Economic Slowdown

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows clear signs of a weakening labor market:

• December: Employment increased by only 50,000 jobs, significantly below the forecast of 60,000
• Revisions: November revised down from 64,000 to 56,000, and October revised from -105,000 to -173,000
• Overall Impact: Including revisions, the labor market lost 76,000 jobs compared to the initial report

These signals indicate that the U.S. economy is entering a clear slowdown, leading to expectations that the (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2026. As interest rates decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, pushing prices higher.

Political Crisis: When Confidence in Financial Institutions Wavers

The most fear-inducing factor for investors is the order by President Donald Trump for the Department of Justice to criminally investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, based on testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June.

Market Implication: This event challenges the “independence of the central bank,” a cornerstone of the U.S. dollar’s credibility and effective monetary policy.

If monetary policy is politicized, the risks include:

• Misguided policy decisions for short-term political gains
• Rising inflation
• Uncertainty over future interest rates

Amid this uncertainty, global institutional investors flock to “safe assets” like gold, which carries no counterparty risk. Massive panic buying ensues as a hedge against an unstable political structure.

Geopolitical Tensions: Another Supporting Factor

Beyond internal U.S. issues, global geopolitical tensions are escalating:

• Iran: President Trump considers military measures in response to recent events
• Greenland (Arctic Security): UK and Germany increase military presence in response to U.S. stance, reflecting fractures within Western alliances
• Venezuela: Regional tensions in Latin America remain unresolved

These instabilities create a “risk premium” for gold prices, supporting continued buying even as prices rise.

Technical Chart Analysis: Strong Uptrend

Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold shows a clear decision:

Trend Structure (Trend Structure)

• Gold broke the previous high at $4,555 and made a new ATH at $4,601
• The latest H4 candle is a large white candle with a long body, indicating strong buying pressure
• Price action confirms the main trend remains bullish (Super Bullish Trend)

Indicators (Indicators)

• Stochastic RSI: Although in overbought territory, in a strong trend, indicators often stay in the upper zone for extended periods, known as a “Super Cycle”
• Moving Averages: EMA lines are perfectly aligned, indicating powerful bullish momentum

Trading Strategy for the Coming Days

For traders already long:

• Recommend “Let Profit Run” by moving the (Trailing Stop) up to around 4,550 to lock in profits
• Continue to ride the trend

For those waiting to buy:

• Do not chase the price directly at 4,601
• Wait for a pullback (Pullback) to test support levels at 4,555 - 4,560
• When a reversal candle appears in this zone, it becomes a better risk-reward entry point
• Short-term profit target: 4,620

What to Watch for in the Next 24 Hours

Possible scenarios:

Bullish Continuation (High Probability) Gold consolidates slightly between 4,580 - 4,600 to cool off, then a new buying wave pushes toward 4,620, supported by ongoing political uncertainties.

Correction (Profit Taking) If price hits 4,620 but fails to break through, profit-taking may trigger, pushing the price back to 4,551 - 4,555 (Previous Highs) to establish a new base before rising again. This is normal and presents a buying opportunity.

Sideways (Range-Bound) Market may pause, awaiting CPI data on Tuesday, with price oscillating between 4,550 - 4,600 to build momentum.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support (Support)

• 4,551 dollars
• 4,520 dollars
• 4,500 dollars

Resistance (Resistance)

• 4,600 dollars
• 4,610 dollars
• 4,620 dollars