Ouro faces dollar pressure, but geopolitics provides support ahead of NFP

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its recent recovery, oscillating near the US$ 4,400 mark during the Asian session on this Friday. The renewed strength of the US dollar (USD), which reached its highest level in nearly a month, continues to weigh on the yieldless precious metal.

Market context: Strong dollar versus hope for interest rate cuts

The US dollar continues to benefit from gains accumulated over the past two weeks, pushing the commodity lower. However, the scenario is not entirely pessimistic. The dovish outlook from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) sets a ceiling for any further advance of the green currency, creating support opportunities for gold.

Recent statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to CNBC reinforce this narrative: he argues that the Fed should not delay interest rate reductions, as this would be the essential ingredient missing for even more robust economic growth.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD: What to expect before the jobs report

From a technical perspective, the pair remains above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), currently around US$ 4,322.58, maintaining an overall upward trend. The positive gradient of the moving average supports retracements, functioning as a dynamic floor.

The MACD indicator remains below the signal line and above zero, although showing upward movement. The negative histogram in contraction suggests a slowdown in selling pressure. The RSI, positioned at 56, stays above the neutral level of 50, indicating favorable momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

Continued strengthening of momentum would pave the way for prolonging the recovery, while pullbacks would be cushioned by established technical support. Staying above US$ 4,322.58 would sustain buyer optimism; a decisive break below this level could trigger a deeper retracement in the metal.

Market-moving data: NFP in focus

The highly anticipated US non-farm employment report (NFP), scheduled for today, will be decisive for the next directional move. Analysts project the creation of 60,000 new jobs in December, below the 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% to 4.5%.

This release will provide crucial signals about the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, which in turn will directly influence dollar price dynamics and give new momentum to gold. Traders are already pricing in the possibility of rate cuts in March and further cuts later this year, which could provide relief to the yellow metal.

Geopolitics as a support element

As markets await critical economic data, geopolitical tensions emerge as a protective factor for gold as a safe haven asset. The US incursion into Venezuela, with President Trump signaling management and extraction of oil from the country’s reserves, increases uncertainties. Simultaneously, the escalation of the Sino-Japanese dispute involving restrictions on rare earths, along with the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, reinforce gold’s defensive appeal.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently warned that ending the Ukrainian conflict is distant, given Russia’s position, and classified any plan to send European troops as dangerous. This turbulent environment offers additional protection against more severe losses in the XAU/USD pair.

Technical outlook for optimists: The turning point at US$ 4,500

Gold buyers need firm acceptance above US$ 4,500 to validate new aggressive positions. Meanwhile, the pair remains close to its December record high, maintaining a fundamentally optimistic tone supported by the overall trend.

A proper technical and fundamental analysis suggests caution: waiting for confirmation of a strong sell-off wave before positioning for further declines remains the most prudent strategy at this moment.

Performance of major currencies: Dollar dominates

The US dollar posted its best weekly performance against the Swiss franc, gaining 0.92%, followed by the Japanese yen with 0.90%. The green currency gained 0.60% against the euro, 0.27% against the pound, and 0.26% versus the Australian dollar, while it fell 0.30% against the Canadian dollar.

The heat map of major currencies reflects this broad USD strength, highlighting its status as the most demanded currency this week. This dynamic reinforces pressure on dollar-priced commodities, particularly gold.

(The technical analysis was developed with the support of computational tools)