Whale pension-usdt.eth strikes again: 3x leverage long on 20,000 ETH, betting on a market rebound

On January 15, 2026, the latest price of Ethereum on Gate is $3,313.48, with a 24-hour fluctuation of -0.24%. Meanwhile, on-chain data has detected a notable development: a well-known whale address “pension-usdt.eth” has made a large-scale position adjustment.

According to monitoring data from Onchain Lens, after closing a profitable Ethereum position of approximately $4.7 million, this whale quickly re-established a long position of 20,000 ETH using 3x leverage. Based on the market price at the time of opening, this position is valued at about $67 million.

As of January 15, with Ethereum’s price oscillating at high levels, this position has realized an unrealized profit of over $700,000, and the whale’s total accumulated profit on Ethereum has exceeded $28 million.

01 Market Background

Recently, Ethereum’s market performance has shown significant upward volatility. Since January 2026, ETH’s price started from a low of $3,000.39 on January 1 and briefly reached a high of $3,352.58 on January 13.

As of January 15, ETH’s price remains stable around $3,313.48 on Gate, achieving a 4.82% increase over 7 days and a 12.99% increase over 30 days.

Behind this rally are several key structural market factors. The fundamentals of the Ethereum network continue to strengthen.

Latest data shows that Ethereum’s staked amount has hit a new high of 35.9 million ETH, accounting for approximately 29.61% of the total ETH supply, indicating strong market confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value.

As the primary platform for smart contracts and decentralized applications, Ethereum’s ecosystem value continues to grow. By early 2026, over 4,200 active decentralized applications have been deployed on Ethereum, with developer activity ranking first among major blockchains for 18 consecutive months.

02 Whale Movements

The recent operation by “pension-usdt.eth” is not an isolated transaction but part of a coherent trading strategy. This address is known for high leverage, large positions, and decisive directional shifts in the Ethereum market.

Just before this long position, the whale’s stance was completely opposite. On January 12, pension-usdt.eth increased its 3x leveraged ETH short position to 16,644 ETH, worth approximately $52.19 million.

This position was built up gradually from a short of 3,155.5 ETH (about $9.9 million on January 4). The rapid shift from large-scale shorting to a 3x leveraged long indicates a high level of flexibility in the trader’s short-term market outlook.

On-chain analysts note that such high-net-worth whale position changes are often related to key market turning points. When whale addresses establish large long positions at relatively low levels, it is generally seen as an optimistic signal for subsequent market performance.

03 Market Structure

The position adjustment by pension-usdt.eth reflects some deep changes in the current crypto market, especially within the Ethereum ecosystem. According to JPMorgan analysts, after nearly $130 billion in historic capital inflows into the crypto market in 2025, overall capital inflows in 2026 are expected to remain strong.

Ethereum, as one of the main beneficiaries of institutional capital inflows, is experiencing subtle shifts in its market structure. On one hand, traditional financial institutions are increasingly accepting Ethereum; on the other hand, innovative applications within the Ethereum ecosystem continue to emerge.

The revival of DeFi and NFT sectors has created real demand and use cases for the Ethereum network.

Crypto market analysis shows a significant correlation between Ethereum price movements and whale behavior. The number of whale addresses (holding over 10,000 ETH) correlates positively with ETH price at a coefficient of 0.78, indicating that large holders’ actions have a substantial impact on market prices.

04 Risk Warning

High leverage operations by whales, while potentially lucrative, also carry significant risks. pension-usdt.eth’s use of 3x leverage means any adverse price movement will be amplified.

A market reversal could trigger forced liquidation. Although the current position has over $700,000 in unrealized gains, in a high-leverage environment, sudden shifts in market sentiment could quickly wipe out profits or turn them into losses.

For ordinary investors, blindly following whale actions involves considerable risk. Whales generally have stronger risk tolerance and faster execution capabilities, and their full trading strategies and hedging plans are often not transparent.

The high volatility characteristic of crypto markets means even experienced traders may face unexpected losses.

05 Investment Perspective

Ethereum’s medium- to long-term outlook remains optimistic among many analysts. From a technical analysis perspective, ETH is currently in an upward trend channel.

Moving average indicators show a short-term bullish trend, with the price breaking above the signal line, indicating buying pressure and potential for further upward movement.

According to analysis from Forex24.pro, Ethereum’s price may first test the support level around $3,135, then rebound upward, with a potential target above $3,945.

Analysts recommend paying attention to key technical levels: a breakout above $3,600 would confirm an upward trend; a fall below $2,855 could signal further decline toward $2,435.

Ethereum’s fundamental innovations are also ongoing. On January 15, Polygon Foundation announced that PIP-69 has officially gone live, with validator share tokens now mapped 1:1 to dPOL, enhancing wallet visibility and expanding the use cases for staked POL.

Such technological innovations help enhance the overall value of the Ethereum ecosystem. For institutional investors seeking diversified risk, Ethereum offers low correlation with traditional asset classes.

According to a 2023 Bloomberg study, including ETH in a traditional stock-dominated portfolio (at 5%-10%) can increase annualized returns by 3.8%.

Ethereum’s staking mechanism also provides long-term holders with a way to earn stable yields. Currently, staked ETH yields about 4%-6% annually, offering some hedge against market volatility.

Trading Signal Interpretation

The position change of pension-usdt.eth itself is an on-chain signal worth noting, but investors should view such information rationally. On one hand, whale operations may be based on deep market analysis and can provide directional clues.

However, the cost basis, leverage use, and risk management strategies of whales are not transparent, making it difficult for ordinary investors to fully replicate their actions.

For investors trading ETH on platforms like Gate, it is recommended to consider multiple analysis dimensions:

• Monitor overall development trends of the Ethereum ecosystem, including developer activity, growth of decentralized applications, and Layer 2 adoption;

• Track on-chain data indicators such as whale address activity, exchange flow, and network activity metrics;

• Consider macroeconomic factors affecting the crypto market, including interest rate policies and regulatory developments.

Investors should recognize that even successful traders like pension-usdt.eth operate within specific market contexts and risk considerations. Blindly following their moves may expose one to unpredictable risks.

In the rapidly changing crypto market, maintaining independent thinking and developing personalized risk management strategies are key to long-term survival and growth.

Future Outlook

As bullish sentiment toward Ethereum continues to rise, retail investors can keep an eye on ETH’s real-time price movements on the Gate platform. The staking ratio of Ethereum has approached 30% of the total supply, which could further tighten market liquidity.

From a technical perspective, if Ethereum’s price can sustainably break above the $3,600 resistance, the next key target is $3,945. Analysts warn that, given the ongoing uncertainty in Federal Reserve monetary policy, the high volatility characteristic of crypto markets is unlikely to change.