#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: The current Bitcoin trend shows clear upward momentum. BTC is oscillating around approximately $96,400, with a short-term trend that is stronger than the previous range-bound consolidation. The characteristic of this wave of market movement is that the resistance levels above have not yet formed obvious hard barriers, with multiple attempts to break upward and slight convergence and consolidation; the short-term structure leans more towards oscillation with a bullish bias rather than simple range trading. During the consolidation process, when the price stabilizes, short-term buy-in is favored, supported by logical reasoning.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics Observation
From the perspective of capital flow: The latest market pulse indicates that after breaking through $95,000, BTC shows signs of positive capital flow, including the funding rate turning positive in the perpetual contract market, and short-term short squeeze events. This reflects increased bullish capital pressure in the short term.
ETF and Institutional Signals: Recent reports indicate that ETF funds experienced a large-scale net inflow (reaching the highest level in recent months), which is a continuation of “trend-based capital entering,” rather than a one-off isolated event.
On-chain Whale Behavior: Currently, there is no sign of panic selling (such as whales transferring large amounts to exchanges), indicating that this upward push is not driven by a large misalignment of short-term funds, but more likely a combined effect of institutional and medium-term holders’ positioning behavior.
3️⃣ Intraday Observation and Key Level Projection
Bullish Priority: The price correction to support zone 1 is the best entry point for long positions. If the support holds and trading volume increases, small positions can be considered for long entries; stop-loss at support zone 1 break below; the short-term targets are the resistance zone 1 as the immediate goal, and resistance zone 2 as the target for this upward wave. All long positions below can consider exiting and observing.
4️⃣ Risk Warning
Based on today’s capital and structural conditions, the main risks for BTC today are:
Fake Breakout Risk: If volume cannot sustain growth, a short-term upward breakout may fail, followed by a quick pullback and volatile oscillation.
Short-term Capital Game Risk: Currently, bullish participation is increasing, but if capital inflow slows down or faces resistance, short-term involvement may trigger oscillation and pullback.
Macro and News Disruption: Market expectations regarding future regulatory policies and macro data (such as CPI, employment, etc.) are still in a sensitive reaction phase, and news can instantly amplify price fluctuations.