TD Cowen lowers strategy target price to $440, institutions have differing views on Bitcoin's future.

Strategy purchased 13,627 bitcoins for approximately $1.25 billion during the week of January 5 to 11, 2026. This is the company’s largest single reserve increase since July 2025. This purchase brings Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings to 687,410, with a current market value of approximately $63.2 billion, making it the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder.

Key Analysis Points

Investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the one-year target price for bitcoin reserve company Strategy from $500 to $440. The analysts stated that ongoing equity and preferred stock issuances have led to a decline in bitcoin yields, which is the main reason for adjusting the target price.

According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts pointed out that although they expect Strategy to acquire about 155,000 bitcoins in fiscal year 2026, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 90,000, these acquisitions will mainly be financed through common and preferred stock, which will dilute bitcoin yields.

Purchase Action

In early January 2026, Strategy once again demonstrated its active strategy of increasing bitcoin holdings, purchasing 13,627 bitcoins for about $1.25 billion from January 5 to 11. This purchase brings the company’s total bitcoin holdings to 687,410, with a total investment of approximately $51.8 billion and an average purchase cost of $75,353 per bitcoin.

The average purchase price for these bitcoins was about $91,519 each, nearly double its average holding cost. This indicates that even at higher bitcoin prices, the company continues to increase its bitcoin reserves. Notably, Strategy’s market capitalization to net crypto assets ratio is currently 0.81, slightly below the 1.0 threshold set by the CEO at the end of 2025. He previously stated that if this indicator falls below 1, he might consider selling some digital assets.

Institutional Divergence

While adjusting the target price, TD Cowen still predicts that bitcoin will reach approximately $177,000 by December 2026 and about $226,000 by December 2027.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, believes that the $125,000 high reached in October 2025 may mark the peak of the current four-year cycle. He predicts 2026 will be a “rest year” for bitcoin, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, offers a more balanced view, believing that bitcoin could achieve sustained and steady returns over the next decade, but unlikely to see extreme single-year gains again. He suggests bitcoin may enter a “long-term slow upward phase.”

Patrick Liou, Director of Institutional Business at Gemini, predicts bitcoin may end 2026 with negative returns, challenging the traditional four-year cycle narrative. He states that market maturity has reduced volatility, and current price corrections are much smaller than historical levels, providing a more sustainable bullish case for the asset.

Market Outlook

From TD Cowen’s historical perspective, the recent target price downgrade is significant.

In July 2025, the investment bank reaffirmed a target price of $680 for Strategy and projected that the company would hold nearly 900,000 bitcoins by 2027. In June 2025, TD Cowen also reiterated a buy rating for Strategy due to bitcoin yields, with a target price of $590, well above the current adjusted $440. This continuous downward adjustment reflects the institution’s changing expectations for Strategy’s future profitability.

Despite lowering the target price, TD Cowen remains optimistic about Strategy’s value as a bitcoin investment vehicle. Analysts expect a reversal in bitcoin yields in fiscal year 2027, with yields possibly accelerating to 8.1%, and bitcoin dollar-denominated returns growing to over $13.5 billion.

As of January 15, 2026, according to Gate exchange data, bitcoin is trading at $96,474, with a market cap of $1.92 trillion, maintaining a high market share of 56.38% in the digital asset market.

The cryptocurrency market is never short of differing opinions. Delphi Digital co-founder Tom Shaughnessy predicts that after investor recovery from the market crash in October 2025, bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in 2026. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn is more optimistic, believing that expanded institutional access and gradually easing monetary policies could drive bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of 2027.

As analysts seek market direction behind these figures, the story of bitcoin as a store of value has quietly evolved from the balance sheets of Silicon Valley tech companies to the reserve assets of sovereign nations.