Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $93,000, with short-term fluctuations between $89,000 and $95,000 being the main trend. Breaking through the $95,000 threshold is necessary to open up upward space, while $89,500 has become an important support level below.

From a cyclical perspective, the halving event occurred nearly three years ago. Historical patterns suggest that 12 to 24 months after a halving are usually periods of price explosion, but the story in 2026 might be different—"halving fatigue" is beginning to show. A clear signal is that the net inflow into institutional spot ETFs is slowing down; data from Q4 2025 shows a 62% decrease compared to Q3, indicating that major institutions' enthusiasm is indeed cooling. However, in terms of scale, spot ETFs have accumulated over $123 billion, and participation from institutions in Asia, Europe, and America is increasing; the US is no longer the sole source of funds.

Looking towards the end of the year, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $140,000–$170,000. This judgment is based on several factors. First is the liquidity environment—The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, and this easing expectation is positive for risk assets like Bitcoin, which acts as a "sponge" absorbing liquidity. Second is supply-side improvement—halving means a significant reduction in new coin issuance, naturally easing miner selling pressure. Additionally, once regulatory frameworks are clarified, about $40 billion of new funds could flow from the $7.5 trillion in the monetary market into the crypto space.

Of course, in extreme scenarios, we should be mentally prepared. If multiple bearish factors hit simultaneously, Bitcoin could retreat to $56,000. The core price range for 2026 is expected to be between $70,000 and $150,000, characterized mainly by high-level oscillations and converging volatility throughout the year.