If gold and silver enter a bear market, it means that the multiple pillars currently driving their rise need to simultaneously undergo significant reversal or disintegration. This is a "perfect storm" composed of macro, financial, and fundamental factors.

Below are the core necessary conditions for a market to turn bearish, which also apply to gold and silver, but silver's dual attributes make the conditions more stringent:

1. Reversal of macro and financial conditions (disappearance of core driving forces)

1. The US initiates a strong rate hike cycle: market expectations of sustained tightening intensify, causing real interest rates to soar. This makes holding interest-free gold and silver extremely costly, serving as the most lethal bearish signal.

2. The dollar enters a long-term, strong, unilateral appreciation channel: dollar credibility is enhanced, and alternative precious metals become the preferred safe-haven assets. Since gold and silver are priced in USD, their prices will face immense pressure.

3. Global systemic risks significantly decrease: geopolitical conflicts ease, major economies stabilize politically, and economic outlooks become highly clear, naturally reducing safe-haven demand.

4. The global "de-dollarization" process stalls or reverses: central banks stop or even reverse gold purchases (becoming net sellers), leading to a fundamental shift in sovereign asset allocation.

2. Collapse of investment and speculative demand (capital outflows)

1. Large-scale, sustained outflows of investment funds: massive holdings, such as those in SPDR Gold ETF, experience panic and trend-based reductions, indicating long-term allocation funds are exiting.

2. Market expectations fully shift: speculative funds (e.g., non-commercial positions in COMEX futures) turn into large net short positions, creating a self-reinforcing downward trend.

3. Deterioration of fundamental conditions (especially critical for silver)

1. The global economy plunges into deep recession: industrial demand (especially in sectors accounting for over half of silver demand) contracts across the board. Silver's industrial attribute shifts from support to drag.

2. Key industrial sectors experience technological substitution or demand collapse: for example, photovoltaic technology accelerates toward "silverless" development, or new energy growth engines stall, completely reversing silver's supply-demand tight balance expectations.

3. Unexpected supply increases: discovery and commissioning of several large high-grade silver mines, or surge in by-product silver production due to increased copper or other metal mining, leading to oversupply.

Differences in Bear Market Conditions for Gold and Silver

| Condition Type | Gold | Silver |
|------------------|-------|---------|
| Core driving force | Macro and financial attributes are absolutely dominant. Its bear market is necessarily driven by a combination of rate hikes + strong USD + risk appetite normalization. | Subject to "dual pressures": 1. Financial pressure following gold. 2. Independent industrial demand pressure (economic recession). |
| Necessary condition strength | Usually requires a fundamental reversal of macro conditions. | More fragile. Even if macro conditions do not fully turn bearish, a collapse in industrial demand alone can cause silver to enter a bear market independently. |
| Volatility and sequence | Relatively small fluctuations; leads the trend. | Extremely volatile; typically experiences deeper and faster declines in bear markets, characterized as the "bear market vanguard." |

Indicators to monitor these conditions now

To judge whether the market might turn, closely track the following signals:

· Barometer: Fed dot plot, US CPI and non-farm payroll data, 10-year US Treasury real yield.
· Capital flows: Changes in holdings of major global gold ETFs (like GLD), and CFTC reports on net long positions of fund managers.
· Market structure: Observe the gold-silver ratio. If gold prices stagnate while the gold-silver ratio rapidly rises from high levels, it often signals silver starting to weaken ahead.
· Fundamentals (silver): Track global photovoltaic installation expectations and changes in silver exchange inventories.

In summary, a gold/silver bull market requires multiple positive factors to resonate, while a transition into a bear market similarly requires the collapse of multiple pillars. Currently, these necessary conditions have not all appeared collectively, but any significant deterioration in one (e.g., resurgence of US inflation reigniting rate hike expectations) could trigger a deep market correction.

If you have further interest in specific risk indicators (such as the calculation method of real interest rates or how to interpret CFTC position reports), I can provide more detailed explanations.