Recently, I've been watching the market charts closely, and this rhythm feels all too familiar. The discussions in the market are nonstop—are there still remnants of a bull market, or has the bear market already begun?

To be honest, a few years ago I didn't pay much attention to the "four-year cycle" theory. When I first entered the crypto space in 2017 and heard veterans talk about cyclical patterns, I thought it was just talk.

But in the past few months, as the market has been pressing down hard, I finally understand: bull and bear markets are not just words—they are revealed through price drops.

BTC plummeted from 126,000 to 94,000, and altcoins are even worse—halved, with 80-90% declines everywhere. Can we still call this market unchanged?

The most warning sign was the wave at the beginning of the month: BTC consolidating around 110,000, while small-cap coins surged two or three times wildly. The last time I saw such a scene was at the end of 2021, after that round of meme coins' dance ended in ruins. I was heavily criticized for issuing risk warnings back then, only to see billions of dollars in leverage liquidated across the internet, with annual gains wiped out overnight.

Eighteen months after the halving, market sentiment is indeed prone to reversal. While institutional holdings support BTC, altcoins are like quicksand—breaking through the three-year and yearly moving averages, with 72,000 becoming a critical threshold. The macro environment remains tight, with rate cut expectations cooling down, and although ETFs are attracting funds, large investors are still on the sidelines.

Rather than obsessing over whether it's a bull or bear market, it's better to think about how to protect yourself. True opportunities don't appear amidst noise; they usually arrive during quiet moments.

Don't rush into action; the market is always there. The question is, do you have your own rhythm?