The recent rally of Dogecoin, yesterday I was still calling for a push to 0.2, but today it was pressed down by the key resistance at 0.15 — this 4-hour signal, if caught correctly, could have yielded easy profits.

This morning, looking at the DOGE/USDT trend, my first judgment was "this rally will retrace." Currently, the price is stuck at 0.1482, which is right in the dense selling pressure zone (the resistance marked in red on the chart). It rebounded from 0.1349 yesterday, but today trading volume has shrunk by more than 30% — this feels like pressing the accelerator but the engine has no power, a classic sign of a weak rally.

**First, understand the current market situation**

Most importantly, the news sentiment for Dogecoin these days is actually quite good — Grayscale's GDOG ETF saw a net inflow of $1.2 million yesterday, and US stock CPI data has also boosted risk asset sentiment. So why can't it go up? Looking at the 4-hour chart makes it clear: the upper Bollinger Band is firmly holding the price below 0.15, the KDJ indicator is approaching the overbought line at 80, and RSI is stuck above 65, applying the brakes. This is a very typical "volume-price divergence" signal.

**Don't be the bagholder**

I previously saw a trader's move: when DOGE rebounded to 0.145, they chased long positions directly, only to be stopped out by resistance at 0.15. Why did this happen? Because they didn't see the "volume-price divergence" — the price was rising without volume support, which indicates the main players are trying to lure in retail investors. We small traders must not rush to buy in.

When the rally lacks volume support, a decline becomes highly probable. This logic applies to any market condition.