BTC falls into a liquidation vortex: a $2.9 billion cliff vs. a $1.675 billion ceiling on the rise

2026-01-14 14:02:10

According to the latest news, the current BTC price is in a highly asymmetric liquidation risk zone. According to Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $90,270, the cumulative long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $2.905 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $99,675, the short liquidation strength will be only $1.675 billion. This indicates that the downside risk far exceeds the upside risk, and the market is at a delicate balance point.

Interpretation of Liquidation Strength Data

Key levels at the current price

As of January 12, BTC is trading around $94,937, between two liquidation trigger points. The significance of this position warrants detailed understanding:

Price Point	Liquidation Volume	Distance from Current Price	Liquidation Direction
$90,270	$2.905 billion	Down $4,667	Long liquidation
$99,675	$1.675 billion	Up $4,738	Short liquidation

It appears symmetrical, but the truth revealed by the data is: downside liquidation volume is 73% larger than upside. This suggests that long positions in the market far outnumber shorts, and once triggered, the chain reaction of liquidations will be more intense on the downside.

Imbalance of Bulls and Bears

This asymmetry reflects several phenomena:

Bullish crowding: More traders are betting on BTC rising, accumulating larger long positions
Cautious shorts: Short sellers hold relatively smaller positions, possibly expecting further upward movement
Risk concentration: Downward trigger liquidations may trigger chain reactions, accelerating the decline

According to CME data, recent CME contract holdings have unexpectedly increased to $11 billion, while Binance holdings have significantly decreased, possibly reflecting divergent attitudes among different market participants.

Market Background and Supporting Forces

Continuous buying by enterprises and institutions

Recent reports show that several listed companies have announced BTC/ETH treasury expansion plans. Twenty One Capital plans to increase holdings by at least 5,800 BTC, and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted at continued buying. These institutional-level purchases could serve as important price supports.

Impact of policy expectations

This week’s US Senate deliberation on the structure of the crypto market may lead to various scenarios, including bipartisan breakthroughs or party-driven initiatives. Such policy expectations typically influence short-term trading sentiment.

Current Risk Assessment

Signals to watch

Excessively large long positions, with high risk of chain reactions triggered by liquidations
Downward liquidation strength ($2.905 billion) far exceeds upward ($1.675 billion)
Price oscillating between the two liquidation points, any breakout could trigger large-scale liquidations

Possible support levels

Continuous buying behavior from enterprises
Growth in CME institutional holdings
Potential upward momentum from policy expectations
In the long term, BTC remains at relatively low levels historically

Summary

BTC is currently in a high-risk, high-reward zone. The $2.905 billion downward liquidation strength is a clear risk warning, reminding traders not to be overly bullish. At the same time, institutional buying and policy expectations provide support. The key is to recognize this asymmetric liquidation risk and manage position sizes prudently. In the short term, $90,270 and $99,675 are two important technical levels; any breakout could trigger rapid market reactions. For risk-sensitive investors, this zone warrants a more cautious approach.

BTC-0,73%

ETH-0,23%

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