Recently encountered some surreal scenes, and I really want to share and discuss with everyone. When food delivery riders deliver meals, they casually ask if you want to join the contract group chat. Staff at milk tea shops enthusiastically recommend "Stable Rise Coin," and even security guards in residential communities are discussing leverage multiples. This nationwide participation frenzy, honestly, makes people a bit worried.

Yesterday, the total transaction volume across the entire network broke through 2 trillion, mainstream cryptocurrencies all surged, and the community was filled with voices like "full position to eat meat" and "missing out is even more painful than losing money." But having been in the crypto circle for so many years, experiencing events like the 312 crash and the FTX explosion, my feeling is: what everyone sees are wealth legends, but the reality is that the last batch of bagholders is rushing into the market.

**1. When those who shouldn’t be touching high-risk assets start rushing, the top has already arrived**

Many newcomers think that soaring transaction volume and continuous gains in cryptocurrencies confirm a bull market. I have to be honest, the top of the crypto market is never drawn by technical analysis; it’s built up by retail investors’ crazy emotions.

The scenes I've seen in the past two weeks, let me break them down: someone used 10x leverage on mainstream coins, earning half a month’s salary in a single day, and frantically recruiting people in the group. Parent groups start discussing that instead of paying for tutoring classes, it’s better to let their kids buy certain coins, which have returns far exceeding financial products. Gym trainers stop their classes, pull you aside, and say they have inside information that a new coin is about to launch—miss it, and you’ll regret it.

Old players who experienced the 519 crash in 2021 understand well: when the people who shouldn’t be touching high-risk assets start rushing blindly, the market’s emotional ceiling has already been broken. History may not repeat exactly, but it always looks astonishingly similar. The end of the 2021 bull market was the same—when taxi drivers, housekeepers, and retired elders started discussing crypto, that top was just around the corner.

The craziest emotions are often the most dangerous.