#美国贸易赤字扩大 $BTC Is oil prices going to fall further? Policy signals vs market reality

Recently, Trump emphasized again that he plans to take more aggressive measures to continue lowering oil prices. His logic is straightforward: cheap oil reduces inflation, lowers household expenses, increases corporate profits, and energizes the economy. In other words, cheap oil is the fastest economic stimulus.

From the policy toolbox perspective, Trump has consistently followed this approach: expanding energy supply, relaxing regulations, and boosting domestic capacity. Theoretically, increased supply leads to more competition, which naturally drives down oil prices. Once prices drop, costs in transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture decrease accordingly, easing consumer pressure and gradually dissipating inflation expectations. This chain reaction appears smooth at the macro level.

Traders are already digesting this expectation. Energy stocks may face short-term pressure, but industries like airlines, logistics, and retail, which rely on fuel costs, are beginning to look promising. Global markets are also watching—if oil prices stay low, global inflation will ease, and central banks around the world might need to adjust their rate hike pace.

But reality isn't that simple. Oil price movements are never solely determined by one country. Geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+ production cut agreements, and changes in global economic demand are all hard variables. Trump's statements are more like a clear policy stance; how deep the impact will be depends on implementation and how international markets respond.