⚠️ High-energy alert: Guys, brace yourselves—the market is about to unleash a barrage of consecutive blows tonight! From 9:30 PM through the late hours, several heavyweight economic data releases and policy announcements will come one after another, each one potentially rewriting short-term market direction.

📋 Tonight's critical timeline

· 21:30 US November retail sales month-over-month and PPI data release
· 23:00 US December existing home sales data
· 23:30 US EIA crude oil inventory as of January 9
· TBD US Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs legality
· Next day 01:00 EIA monthly energy outlook report
· Next day 01:45 Trump delivers remarks

🎯 Data breakdown and market impact

PPI data is the decisive factor—the key is the US November PPI year-over-year released at 21:30, with market consensus expecting 2.7%. This number is critical: if actual data comes in below expectations, it will reinforce the narrative of peak inflation, potentially supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if data comes in stronger, it may amplify concerns about a delayed rate-cut cycle.

EIA crude oil inventory is the sentiment amplifier—last period's data dropped sharply by 3.832 million barrels, directly pushing oil prices higher and boosting inflation expectations. Tonight's expected decline is 1.702 million barrels. If inventory continues to decline significantly, inflation concerns will intensify; but if inventory actually increases, it will ease pressure. Risk assets like Ethereum are also very sensitive to such data.

Trump tariff ruling is a hidden black swan—the Supreme Court's decision is completely uncertain. If the ruling goes against Trump, it could trigger short-term market concerns about trade policy outlook and US dollar credibility, and the uncertainty itself may spark market volatility.

💡 Logic chain

Simply put: PPI and EIA data will influence market sentiment by reshaping inflation expectations and rate-cut expectations. Moderate or weak data performance → warming rate-cut expectations → favorable for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, if data is strong → inflation concerns intensify → market under pressure.

Add Trump's tariff ruling and his subsequent remarks—these variables could disturb expectations around dollar credibility, and any surprise signals could trigger safe-haven capital flows or sharp market swings.

🔑 Trading recommendations

Tonight is a typical high-volatility trading night. I suggest you:

1. Reduce your leverage ratios in advance; don't be greedy. Mentally prepare for potentially dramatic price swings.

2. Keep close watch on Bitcoin and Ethereum's real-time reactions—these two are the best barometers of market sentiment; the price action in the first 5 minutes after data release best reflects true market expectations.

3. Don't sleep too soundly. Trump's early morning remarks could bring additional surprises or shocks, and the market might experience another wave of volatility at that point.

Whether it's fortune or misfortune, the data and policy announcements will tell you the answer. Are you ready?