Tonight, the latest US CPI data will be announced, and this report is closely watched by the global crypto market.

**Inflation Still Not Fully Under Control**

Data shows that the US CPI year-over-year rate remains at 2.7% in December 2025, with core CPI stuck at 2.6%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Long-term inflation expectations among consumers have also risen to 3.4%. What does this directly imply? The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term is low, the US dollar may continue to strengthen, and this will significantly suppress the attractiveness of crypto assets.

**Three Scenarios, Three Outcomes**

If the CPI data comes in better than expected, the market will reinforce the view that "the Fed still needs to maintain high interest rates," leading to a stronger dollar and falling risk assets—crypto market leveraged longs should be cautious.

If the data meets or is slightly below expectations, it’s a different story. Risk appetite may temporarily increase, providing room for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to rebound.

The worst-case scenario? Data shows inflation persists while economic growth lags, causing market fears of stagflation, and all risk assets could be affected.

**What to Watch Next**

Traders should focus on two things: the performance of Bitcoin at key price levels after the data release, and the subsequent trend of the US dollar index. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but in the long run, the real opportunities in the crypto market lie in infrastructure development and ecosystem improvement—steady progress is the right path.