Bullish return? Multiple signals indicate that the Bitcoin bull market pattern is brewing for 2026

For ordinary investors, the sudden shift in the market can often be confusing. Just as market sentiment appears to be stalemated, a series of strong positive signals are emerging simultaneously on-chain, technically, and macroeconomically, pointing to one direction: a new Bitcoin (BTC) bull market may be just around the corner.

01 Market Turning Point

Currently, Bitcoin is at a delicate and critical technical juncture. As of January 14, Bitcoin’s price has broken through $96,000, demonstrating strong short-term momentum.

A rare historical signal is being triggered: Bitcoin’s annual return is about to turn positive from negative. Currently, Bitcoin’s decline compared to the same period last year is about 4.5%.

Once Bitcoin’s price rises by approximately 4.5%, the annual return will turn positive. This scenario played out in July 2020, followed by a strong upward cycle.

02 Bullish Signal Resonance

Multiple analysis tools and market data are issuing consistent bullish signals, building solid confidence in the future market.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading in the “cup and handle” pattern’s handle area. This is a classic bullish continuation pattern, indicating that after a rounded bottom recovery, the price is consolidating before a breakout.

Short-term trend indicators are also supporting this. Bitcoin has regained its position above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). Historical data shows that the price reacts strongly to this moving average: losing it can lead to declines, while holding above it can trigger significant gains within days.

More importantly, market selling willingness is rapidly shrinking. On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has dropped from a peak of about 78,600 coins daily in November last year to around 3,700 coins currently, a decline of over 95%.

This means the supply of Bitcoin available for immediate sale has significantly decreased, reducing resistance to price increases.

03 Institutional Reshaping Cycle

The underlying logic of the market is undergoing a fundamental change. Institutional analysis, represented by Grayscale, suggests that the traditional four-year cycle driven by “halving” events and retail sentiment may have become invalid.

The new driving force comes from large-scale institutional capital inflows. For example, spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by giants like BlackRock and Fidelity act as “shock absorbers,” continuously providing passive buying support to the market.

By the third quarter of 2025, the assets under management of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $191 billion.

Bloomberg data shows that on January 13, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced strong net capital inflows. This continuous flow of funds makes market depth retracements shallower and shorter in duration.

04 Macroeconomic and Regulatory Tailwinds

The macroeconomic outlook and clearer regulatory policies are jointly bringing a warm wind to the cryptocurrency market.

Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates continue to rise, which is generally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. In December, the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.6% year-over-year, below expectations, further reinforcing this outlook.

On the regulatory front, the US is accelerating the development of a clear regulatory framework for digital assets. The Senate Agriculture Committee plans to release its cryptocurrency market structure bill draft on January 21.

The increased regulatory certainty is a key prerequisite for traditional large financial institutions to enter the market and allocate assets on a large scale.

05 Price Forecast and Strategies

In the face of a complex market, top institutional analysts have provided widely varying but overall optimistic forecasts for 2026.

For investors, the key is strategic response. Under the bull market expectation, trend trading, long-term holding (HODL), and dollar-cost averaging are strategies worth considering.

At the same time, the demand for arbitrage or hedging during market volatility has also increased significantly, driving growth in professional derivatives trading. Platforms like Gate offer relevant services in this area.

According to CoinDesk data, Gate’s derivatives market share increased by 9.32% throughout 2025, leading among major trading platforms, with December also seeing the largest increase in derivatives market share.

Future Outlook

The industry’s focus is no longer limited to the next “halving” schedule but is expanding to a broader picture: Bitcoin is transforming from a high-volatility speculative asset on the fringe into an increasingly important macro hedge tool and digital store of value in global portfolios.

As listed companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings as treasury reserves, and as the markets for precious metals and digital gold surge in tandem, the main narrative of the market has shifted.