#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing Nomura's warning, I am reminded of the days when I chased gains and sold on dips. The Federal Reserve's new chair lowering interest rates in June sounds wonderful, but the real killer is the subsequent policy disagreements—Trump wants to cut rates to stimulate the economy, while the Fed wants to hold steady. Once this tug-of-war intensifies, the market will have to pay the price for policy uncertainty.

What I fear most is this "all positive news has been priced in" situation. Most of the positive signals have already been digested, and from July to November, all the disappointment and disagreements will erupt. By then, US Treasury yields will fall, US stocks will retreat, and the dollar will weaken. Once global liquidity reverses, many seemingly stable asset allocations will be exposed.

The key is that this period is often when new projects and narratives are most likely to push stock prices higher—market panic leads to more scams. I have seen too many people get caught in a cycle of being cut by some "safe-haven asset" concept when policy uncertainty prevails.

The real advice is: start now to review your portfolio structure—identify what can truly withstand risks and what is just a bubble inflated by liquidity. Don't be fooled by the previous "rate cut expectations"; the turbulence caused by policy deadlock is what you really need to guard against. Living longer is much more important than making quick money.