BTC is testing an extremely delicate moment.

Recently, this wave of decline has revealed a very critical but overlooked signal—some large holders have, for the first time in this cycle, shown unrealized net losses. This is not an ordinary correction. Based on historical data, such a situation only occurs near deep retracement zones.

The current price position is actually very significant. The 50-day moving average and the volume-weighted average price formed after the halving are being repeatedly tested but have not yet been effectively broken below. Chain pressure indicators have already returned to levels near the "surrender point" from early in this cycle.

Key data changes are happening in these areas:

Realized losses have suddenly expanded. The supply in loss has surged above 7.5 million coins, indicating panic-driven turnover is accelerating. The unrealized profit rate of the new generation of whales has turned negative—this was last seen after the 2022 peak. Short-term holders are heavily trapped, with a large amount of chips underwater. This structure often appears in history when the market is nearing exhaustion.

A very obvious feature of the current market is: prices are still struggling near support, but sentiment has already collapsed significantly.

When both price structure and sentiment are compressed to the extreme, there are usually only two outcomes. Either rapid volatility release, completely clearing out the sentiment. Or, after panic is exhausted, a major trend reversal occurs.

This is not about betting on rise or fall now. Instead, you need to understand—such signals do not appear when the market is comfortable. True large fluctuations often occur during the most suppressed and least desirable times.

How it will unfold next, the market will soon give the answer. Compared to guessing the direction, understanding the cycle is much more important.