Many people ask, since the market is optimistic, why does Bitcoin have to fall? This actually reflects a core logic behind participation in the cryptocurrency market.

Let's start with a case study. Remember ZEC? When the market was trapped at around 450 with a bunch of shorts, many chose to hold steady, and now everyone has made a profit. This experience applies equally to BTC, but only if you understand why the price moves this way.

From a miner's perspective, currently, the market price of Antminer machines with 150T hash rate is around 1200 to 2000 RMB. Comparing this to the price when BTC hit $60,000 after the 2024 halving—back then, machines cost at least 6000 RMB, and before the halving, over ten thousand RMB. Now, mining machines are cheaper, but the returns are actually higher. Why is the price still falling? Simply put, the market has already prepared psychologically for a decline in Bitcoin. If 2026 truly turns out to be a downtrend, not acting now means these machines will soon become scrap metal.

Analyzing from the selling pressure perspective, once $126,000 is confirmed as the top of this bull market, most miners will consider cashing out near $100,000. Why not sell directly at $126,000? Everyone wants to be greedy, but once the price halves to just over $100,000, selling becomes a necessity. As a miner myself, I basically liquidated my holdings at around $93,000.

Many people worry that $75,000 is the bottom, thinking that’s the cost of mining. But this understanding is too simplistic—$75,000 is just the cost under normal electricity prices. In the real world, many companies and individuals are mining at a loss. Why do they still do it? Because the logic of accumulating coins in a bear market is clear: losing money for two years, and two years later, Bitcoin could return to $120,000 or even $200,000. No matter how you calculate it, it’s worth it. The market could fall below $40,000, which is not terrifying but rather an essential step to expand participation.

This brings us back to the core question: why does Bitcoin go up? Ultimately, the more participants there are, the stronger the collective push for higher prices. The question is how to attract more people to enter? Not relying on some special crypto features—everyone knows the truth—people are in it to make money. A few days ago, I talked with some friends about the price, and they were stunned to hear it’s already $90,000. I said it will continue to rise, and they immediately shook their heads—thinking that Bitcoin’s golden era has passed and they dare not jump in.

How to break this perception? It has to be driven by the price going down. When the price drops to a level where potential participants feel it’s cheap, they will naturally enter. Prices don’t rise randomly; there must be incremental demand to support the increase.