#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 BTC is repeatedly testing key support levels, and veteran traders are experiencing the most difficult moment of the year—

Behind this wave of decline is an easily overlooked signal: some large holders are experiencing unrealized losses for the first time in this cycle. This is not a phenomenon seen in routine pullbacks. Looking back at historical trends makes it clear that such situations only occur frequently near deep retracements.

BTC's current price is stuck bouncing between several critical levels—50-day moving average, and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) formed after the halving—both are being tested repeatedly but have yet to break through convincingly. On-chain pressure indicators have already returned to levels near the "surrender point" early in the cycle.

A few key data points that must be acknowledged:
• Realized losses are expanding, with supply in loss soaring above 7.5 million coins, and panic selling accelerating;
• The unrealized profits of the new generation of whales have turned negative—this situation last occurred after the 2022 highs;
• Short-term holders are generally trapped, with a large amount of chips underwater—this pattern historically appears when the market is nearing exhaustion.

The market's current characteristics are very clear: prices are still struggling near support lines, but sentiment has already collapsed.

When both price structure and market sentiment are pushed to the limit, there are usually only two paths forward: either quickly releasing volatility to completely wipe out sentiment; or, after panic has exhausted itself, a major trend reversal will occur.

This is not a call for you to bet on a direction now. Instead, it’s a reminder—such large-scale signals do not appear when the market is comfortable. True big waves often emerge during the most uncomfortable, least wanted moments.

How the market will move next, the answer will come soon. Instead of obsessing over ups and downs, it’s better to focus on the cycle.