$2 million call options appear on Deribit. This big bet shows how strong the short-term outlook for BTC is.

A certain investor placed two consecutive bets on Deribit, spending over $2 million to buy BTC call options expiring at the end of January with a strike price of $98,000. Each trade involved paying $1.14 million in premium for options covering 1,200 BTC. This large-scale wager has attracted market attention and reflects institutional expectations for Bitcoin’s short-term movement. However, a closer look at market reactions reveals a much more complex situation.

How Big Is This Bet

At the current price of $95,486, these 2,400 BTC are worth approximately $2.3 billion. In other words, this options bet, with a premium of over $2 million, leverages a BTC exposure worth over $200 million. This is a typical leveraged trade—if correct, it can yield huge profits; if wrong, the entire premium is lost.

What Is the Market Hinting At

Bullish Expectations Emerge

A statement from Lin Chen, Head of Asia-Pacific Business at Deribit, indicates that there is indeed demand for BTC call options in the $98,000–$100,000 range. This is not an isolated event but reflects some institutions’ short-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Currently, BTC has broken through $92,000, with the next significant resistance at $94,500. If the price can hold above this level, there is a basis to push further toward $98,000 and even $100,000. From a technical perspective, the 24-hour price increase is 4.67%, with trading volume surging 25% to $37 billion, all signs of bullish sentiment building.

Contradictory Signals in the Market

However, there is an interesting contradiction: the prices of put options in the options market remain higher than those of call options. This indicates that the market’s mainstream attitude remains cautious about the future. In other words, this $2 million-plus bullish bet appears more like an “aggressive gamble by a minority of funds” rather than a market consensus.

Meanwhile, the 30-day implied volatility for BTC and ETH is under pressure, and open interest in futures contracts remains roughly flat. These signals suggest that while the market sees upside potential, it is also preparing for possible volatility.

Risks to Watch

Short-Term Volatility Pressure

In the past 24 hours, total leverage futures liquidations across the network reached $180 million, with both longs and shorts being wiped out. This indicates significant disagreement among market participants about the trend, and short-term volatility could be intense.

For this call option to be profitable, BTC needs to break above $98,000 before the end of January. However, if it encounters selling pressure at the $94,500 resistance level or experiences a pullback, the gains from this bet could be significantly reduced. Time decay is also a concern—there are only about two weeks left until the expiration date, and time is running out.

Uncertainty in Macro Factors

According to relevant news, macro events such as the release of US CPI data could trigger short-term market volatility. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans, putting pressure on liquidity-sensitive crypto assets. These uncontrollable external factors could change the market trend at critical moments.

Summary

This over $2 million bullish options bet reflects institutional expectations for a short-term breakout of BTC, but whether this will materialize depends on breaking through the $94,500 resistance. The overall market remains cautious, as indicated by higher put option prices, signaling ongoing risk awareness. With high short-term volatility, limited time, and macro uncertainties, the success rate of this bet is not as straightforward as the numbers suggest. For market participants, this is more of a window into market sentiment rather than a definitive directional signal.